Are you easily influenced? Do you have lots of heroes? Do you admire many charismatic people? Do you find it hard to criticize popular people, and is it easy for you to believe everything they say? Are you depressed because this is a low point in your life, and does it seem that everything is going wrong?
If so, it would not be a good idea to allow yourself to be *recruited* by any of the following churches. They are the main “splinter” groups formed at various times after certain doctrines were rejected by the Worldwide Church of God. The splinter groups have kept the doctrines of the original pastor-general, Herbert W. Armstrong. (The list below was compiled with assistance from an article about Armstrongism at the 4truth.net website.)
Church of God, International. (abbrev. CGI or COGI.)
-- Based in Tyler, Texas.
-- Armor of God television program and periodical.
-- Infuse magazine, and The International News.
Church of God, Pasadena. (abbrev. CGP or COGP)
-- Based in Pasadena, California.
-- Pastor is David Hulme.
-- Vision magazine and website
Church of God - Preparing for the Kingdom of God. (abbrev. COG-PKG)
-- Based in Cincinnati, Ohio.
-- Pastor is Ronald Weinland.
-- The Prophesied End-Time book.
-- 2008 - God's Final Witness book.
-- The-End website.
-- History of church and pastor - 'false prophet Ronald Weinland'
-- A critical book review - Christian Media Research
-- June 13, 2012 - Ronald Weinland convicted for income tax evasion.
Grace Communion International (abbrev. GCI)
Name changed in April 2009.
ex. Worldwide Church of God (abbrev. WCG or WCOG)
-- Based in Glendora, California.
-- Original pastor-general was Herbert W. Armstrong (1892-1986)
-- Second pastor-general was Joseph W. Tkach, Sr. (1927-1995).
-- Third pastor is Joseph W. Tkach, Jr.
-- The Plain Truth magazine, plus various booklets.
-- Christian Odyssey magazine, website, and Together (WCOG News).
-- In the 1990s several of the Armstrong doctrines were rejected.
-- In 1997 it was accepted into the National Association of Evangelicals.
-- This church now appears to be less extreme than the others listed here.
Intercontinental Church of God. (abbrev. ICG or ICOG)
-- Based in Tyler, Texas.
-- Original pastor was Garner Ted Armstrong (1930-2003).
-- Current pastor is Mark Armstrong.
-- Associated Ministry :- Garner Ted Armstrong Evangelistic Association.
-- 21st Century Watch magazine.
Living Church of God. (abbrev. LCG or LCOG)
-- Based in Charlotte, North Carolina.
-- Pastor is Roderick C. Meredith.
-- Tomorrow's World television program.
-- Tomorrow's World magazine, booklets, and bible study course.
Philadelphia Church of God. (abbrev. PCG or PCOG)
-- Based in Edmond, Oklahoma.
-- Pastor is Gerald Flurry.
-- The Key of David television program.
-- The Philadelphia Trumpet magazine.
-- The Wonderful World Tomorrow book.
Restored Church of God. (abbrev. RCG or RCOG)
-- Based in Wadsworth, Ohio.
-- Pastor is David C. Pack.
-- The Real Truth magazine
-- The World To Come videos
-- _A critical article_ on the 'Living Armstrongism' blog.
United Church of God. (abbrev. UCG or UCOG)
-- Based in Milford, Ohio - east of Cincinnati.
-- President is Clyde Kilough.
-- Pastor is Roy Holladay, amongst other elders.
-- The Good News magazine and bible reading program.
-- United News, and Vertical Thought, Virtual Christian magazines.
-- World News & Prophecy website.
(A more complete list is here.)
If I can’t convince you that being *recruited* by any of those churches would be a bad idea, please carefully consider the following questions and information :-
1/ When you first join the group do you get any ‘instant’ friends?
2/ Does everyone dress more or less the same, act the same, and talk the same?
3/ Is questioning the group, or the group leaders, discouraged or frowned upon?
4/ Does everyone in the group believe exactly the same things (i.e. what the leaders tell them to believe)? Is there no room for individual belief or opinion even in minor areas?
5/ Is reading any literature critical of the group discouraged?
6/ Does the group believe that it is an elite and exclusive organisation which alone has ‘the truth’ and answers to life’s questions?
7/ Does the group pour scorn upon, ‘attack,’ and mock other Christian churches and their interpretation of the Bible?
8/ Does the group discourage association with non-members (except, maybe for the possibility of converting them to the group)?
9/ Does the group give you ‘black and white answers’? -- What the group agrees with is right and what the group disagrees with is wrong.
10/ Does the group tend to withhold certain information from you? Are the more unusual doctrines of the group not discussed with you until you are more deeply involved in the movement?
If you answered ‘yes’ to more than (say) two of the above questions you are in danger of being manipulated by con men and women who use powerful mind control techniques which bypass your ability to critically evaluate and question the group.
If you stay with the group for longer than the indoctrination period, these questions will become more relevant :-
1/ Do you feel that no matter how hard you try, the ‘good deeds’ you perform for your group are never quite enough? As a result of this do you often feel plagued with feelings of guilt?
2/ Have you attempted to disable your own critical thinking abilities by ‘shelving’ various doubts about the group or group’s teachings?
3/ Are others in the group, who do not conform to the requirements of the movement’s teachings, treated with suspicion and treated like second class members?
4/ Do you feel fearful of leaving the group? Many ‘cults’ use subtle fear tactics to stop members from leaving. For example, the group may imply that those who leave will be attacked by the Devil, have a nasty accident, or at least not prosper because they have left ‘the truth’.
However, do not become depressed - because all is not lost!
The option to leave the cult will always be available.
The last three paragraphs in this blog page should help you achieve that aim: Mind Control by Cults
Professional help from Christian counselors is available through this site :- http://christiantherapist.com/
(If possible, it would be wise to check if counselors have relevant qualifications. Recommendations from previous patients would also be very valuable.)
(Questions above originally supplied by Spotlight Ministries - page - Used by permission.)
.
Monday, August 30, 2010
Tuesday, August 24, 2010
Space Exploration by NASA
Exploration and Investigation
History recalls that there have always been explorers in the human race -- people who want to expand their horizons, investigate their surroundings, and understand the complex nature of the environment, the Earth, the Solar System, and Space itself. Apart from space exploration, there are countless scientists around the world 'expanding their horizons' in many fields of endeavor. Who decides how much funding those fields of endeavor will receive, and who decides which ones are worthy of receiving funds? In the end it is likely to be a political decision. A wealthy country can probably afford to fund scientific investigations as well as looking after the poorer members of its society.
This is part of a speech given by Michael Griffin (ex NASA Adminstrator) to the 39th Lunar and Planetary Science Conference on March 10, 2008
"To me, the person who best captured NASA’s true mission was Gene Roddenberry, with his immortal line about the mission of the Starship Enterprise, “To explore strange new worlds. To seek out new life and new civilizations. To boldly go where no [one] has gone before.” That’s almost perfect; I think we’re more likely to create new civilizations than to find others, but I love those lines, and if it wasn’t for the royalties we’d have to pay, and of course the split infinitive…
"All joking aside, there are several nuggets of wisdom in these words, nuggets that speak not only to the public’s perception of what we do at NASA, but also serve to provide a deep sense of purpose to the work you all perform as lunar and planetary scientists. You here today are the ones who explore strange new worlds, seek new life, and who go where no one has gone before. Do you ever think about what life might be like for working scientists a few hundred years from now, maybe by comparing the trails we are blazing today with those cleared for us by Galileo, Tycho Brahe, Kepler and many other astronomers and planetary scientists? Could they have ever imagined what we are doing today? Can we possibly foresee anything of the world of, say, the 26th Century? We are living today in exciting times. Planetary science is going through a true Renaissance age; some of the discoveries of this age will be discussed at greater length right here at this conference. For example, it had been 33 years since NASA last flew by the planet Mercury with Mariner 10. But just two months ago, MESSENGER recorded spectra and snapped over 1,200 images of previously unseen features on the planet Mercury’s surface, and we will see even more this October during its next flyby. I can’t wait. Meanwhile, in orbit around the planet Saturn, Cassini will fly within 50 kilometers of Enceladus this Wednesday to sample water-ice samples and other gases. Previously, Cassini revealed that Saturn’s planet-sized, organic-rich moon Titan has hundreds of times more liquid hydrocarbons than all the known oil and natural gas reserves here on Earth. And who among us was not awed last year by the time-lapse images from New Horizons when it observed a spectacular 200-mile-high volcanic eruption from the Jovian moon Io, and spotted the infrared glow from at least six other active volcanoes?
"We are exploring strange new worlds today, and you are the scientists who are making it happen. It may not be as dramatic as portrayed in science fiction – but it’s not fiction. It’s real. NASA’s Science Mission Directorate is currently operating over fifty flight missions in the various Earth and space science disciplines, and Alan Stern’s team has heeded the advice of the science community in formulating a more balanced portfolio of missions – large, medium, and small missions – while addressing the priorities articulated by the Congress, President, and various science communities.
"While we might all wish we had more money to fund each and every space mission ever desired or proposed, it is a fact across, stretching across multiple Presidential Administrations and Congresses, that NASA simply does not have the budget resources to accomplish all of the many and varied space and aeronautics missions that our many constituencies would like us to do. The President’s request for NASA in FY 2009 is $17.6 billion out of $3.1 trillion for all U.S. government spending, less than 6/10ths of a percent of the entire Federal budget. We don’t get anything like the 24% of the budget that the average American thinks we receive, and so we must set priorities, establish a careful balance between them, and ask members of the space community to respect these priorities as well as NASA’s other mission areas, human spaceflight and aeronautics research, as worthy and noble endeavors in their own right."
.
[emphasis by me!]
.
History recalls that there have always been explorers in the human race -- people who want to expand their horizons, investigate their surroundings, and understand the complex nature of the environment, the Earth, the Solar System, and Space itself. Apart from space exploration, there are countless scientists around the world 'expanding their horizons' in many fields of endeavor. Who decides how much funding those fields of endeavor will receive, and who decides which ones are worthy of receiving funds? In the end it is likely to be a political decision. A wealthy country can probably afford to fund scientific investigations as well as looking after the poorer members of its society.
This is part of a speech given by Michael Griffin (ex NASA Adminstrator) to the 39th Lunar and Planetary Science Conference on March 10, 2008
"To me, the person who best captured NASA’s true mission was Gene Roddenberry, with his immortal line about the mission of the Starship Enterprise, “To explore strange new worlds. To seek out new life and new civilizations. To boldly go where no [one] has gone before.” That’s almost perfect; I think we’re more likely to create new civilizations than to find others, but I love those lines, and if it wasn’t for the royalties we’d have to pay, and of course the split infinitive…
"All joking aside, there are several nuggets of wisdom in these words, nuggets that speak not only to the public’s perception of what we do at NASA, but also serve to provide a deep sense of purpose to the work you all perform as lunar and planetary scientists. You here today are the ones who explore strange new worlds, seek new life, and who go where no one has gone before. Do you ever think about what life might be like for working scientists a few hundred years from now, maybe by comparing the trails we are blazing today with those cleared for us by Galileo, Tycho Brahe, Kepler and many other astronomers and planetary scientists? Could they have ever imagined what we are doing today? Can we possibly foresee anything of the world of, say, the 26th Century? We are living today in exciting times. Planetary science is going through a true Renaissance age; some of the discoveries of this age will be discussed at greater length right here at this conference. For example, it had been 33 years since NASA last flew by the planet Mercury with Mariner 10. But just two months ago, MESSENGER recorded spectra and snapped over 1,200 images of previously unseen features on the planet Mercury’s surface, and we will see even more this October during its next flyby. I can’t wait. Meanwhile, in orbit around the planet Saturn, Cassini will fly within 50 kilometers of Enceladus this Wednesday to sample water-ice samples and other gases. Previously, Cassini revealed that Saturn’s planet-sized, organic-rich moon Titan has hundreds of times more liquid hydrocarbons than all the known oil and natural gas reserves here on Earth. And who among us was not awed last year by the time-lapse images from New Horizons when it observed a spectacular 200-mile-high volcanic eruption from the Jovian moon Io, and spotted the infrared glow from at least six other active volcanoes?
"We are exploring strange new worlds today, and you are the scientists who are making it happen. It may not be as dramatic as portrayed in science fiction – but it’s not fiction. It’s real. NASA’s Science Mission Directorate is currently operating over fifty flight missions in the various Earth and space science disciplines, and Alan Stern’s team has heeded the advice of the science community in formulating a more balanced portfolio of missions – large, medium, and small missions – while addressing the priorities articulated by the Congress, President, and various science communities.
"While we might all wish we had more money to fund each and every space mission ever desired or proposed, it is a fact across, stretching across multiple Presidential Administrations and Congresses, that NASA simply does not have the budget resources to accomplish all of the many and varied space and aeronautics missions that our many constituencies would like us to do. The President’s request for NASA in FY 2009 is $17.6 billion out of $3.1 trillion for all U.S. government spending, less than 6/10ths of a percent of the entire Federal budget. We don’t get anything like the 24% of the budget that the average American thinks we receive, and so we must set priorities, establish a careful balance between them, and ask members of the space community to respect these priorities as well as NASA’s other mission areas, human spaceflight and aeronautics research, as worthy and noble endeavors in their own right."
.
[emphasis by me!]
.
Wednesday, July 7, 2010
Mayan Nobel Laureate to Address the 2012 Prophecies
by Laura Snider (dailycamera.com) - July 5, 2010
[extracts]
"The '2012' movie is based on the notion that the Mayan calendar predicts the end of the world on Dec. 21, 2012. The movie is just one of a number of doomsday prophecies based on the end of the 13th baktun (each baktun equals approximately 144,000 days) on the Mayan calendar."
"But these interpretations are based more in pop culture than in reality, according to Rigoberta Menchú Tum, a Mayan who was raised in the Guatemalan highlands."
"Menchú Tum, who won the Nobel Peace Prize in 1992 for her work promoting social justice for indigenous people, will be in Boulder on Thursday with two of her spiritual elders to discuss how Mayan communities interpret the prophecies of 2012."
_more_
When: 8:30 a.m. to 4:30 p.m. Thursday, July 8, 2010.
Where: Naropa University's Nalanda Campus, 6287 Arapahoe Ave., Boulder, Colorado, USA.
Cost: Tickets cost $195 and can be purchased online here: www.peacejam.org
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Go here for more info: A 'Boulder Weekly' interview with Rigoberta Menchú Tum
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
YouTube video: 2012 Revealed - KGNU radio interview
YouTube page: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QwkFtc950Lc
.
[extracts]
"The '2012' movie is based on the notion that the Mayan calendar predicts the end of the world on Dec. 21, 2012. The movie is just one of a number of doomsday prophecies based on the end of the 13th baktun (each baktun equals approximately 144,000 days) on the Mayan calendar."
"But these interpretations are based more in pop culture than in reality, according to Rigoberta Menchú Tum, a Mayan who was raised in the Guatemalan highlands."
"Menchú Tum, who won the Nobel Peace Prize in 1992 for her work promoting social justice for indigenous people, will be in Boulder on Thursday with two of her spiritual elders to discuss how Mayan communities interpret the prophecies of 2012."
_more_
When: 8:30 a.m. to 4:30 p.m. Thursday, July 8, 2010.
Where: Naropa University's Nalanda Campus, 6287 Arapahoe Ave., Boulder, Colorado, USA.
Cost: Tickets cost $195 and can be purchased online here: www.peacejam.org
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Go here for more info: A 'Boulder Weekly' interview with Rigoberta Menchú Tum
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
YouTube video: 2012 Revealed - KGNU radio interview
YouTube page: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QwkFtc950Lc
.
Sunday, May 2, 2010
Claims of Life on Mars 'Positively False'
by Clara Moskowitz, 'space.com' senior writer - 29 April 2010.
[extracts]
"Despite recent media reports that NASA found evidence for life on Mars, the U.S. space agency says proof that we are not alone is still a ways off.
"A Wednesday [28 April 2010] article in the U.K.'s 'The Sun' newspaper entitled, 'NASA: Evidence of Life on Mars,' reported that the agency had unveiled 'compelling evidence' for Martian organisms. But NASA officials and veteran Mars mission scientists say 'no.'
" 'This headline is extremely misleading,' said Dwayne Brown, a spokesman for NASA based at the agency's headquarters in Washington, D.C. 'This makes it sound like we announced that we found life on Mars, and that is absolutely, positively false.'
"The piece claimed that the Mars Exploration Rovers Spirit and Opportunity, which have been wheeling around the surface of the red planet since January 2004, found pond scum, which the paper calls 'the building blocks of life as we know it.'
" 'I think they have taken this stuff out of context,' Brown said. Such a discovery would truly have been groundbreaking, since pond scum, scientifically known as cyanobacteria, are actually a form of life themselves, not just building blocks for it.
" 'I can only assume that the Sun reporter misunderstood,' said Cornell University planetary scientist Steve Squyres, principal investigator of the Mars Exploration Rover project, who was quoted in the story. 'What Spirit and Opportunity have found is sulfate minerals... not organic materials, not pond scum, and not the building blocks of life as we know it.' "
_lots more here_
.
[extracts]
"Despite recent media reports that NASA found evidence for life on Mars, the U.S. space agency says proof that we are not alone is still a ways off.
"A Wednesday [28 April 2010] article in the U.K.'s 'The Sun' newspaper entitled, 'NASA: Evidence of Life on Mars,' reported that the agency had unveiled 'compelling evidence' for Martian organisms. But NASA officials and veteran Mars mission scientists say 'no.'
" 'This headline is extremely misleading,' said Dwayne Brown, a spokesman for NASA based at the agency's headquarters in Washington, D.C. 'This makes it sound like we announced that we found life on Mars, and that is absolutely, positively false.'
"The piece claimed that the Mars Exploration Rovers Spirit and Opportunity, which have been wheeling around the surface of the red planet since January 2004, found pond scum, which the paper calls 'the building blocks of life as we know it.'
" 'I think they have taken this stuff out of context,' Brown said. Such a discovery would truly have been groundbreaking, since pond scum, scientifically known as cyanobacteria, are actually a form of life themselves, not just building blocks for it.
" 'I can only assume that the Sun reporter misunderstood,' said Cornell University planetary scientist Steve Squyres, principal investigator of the Mars Exploration Rover project, who was quoted in the story. 'What Spirit and Opportunity have found is sulfate minerals... not organic materials, not pond scum, and not the building blocks of life as we know it.' "
_lots more here_
.
Monday, February 22, 2010
A Scared Teenager Asks Questions About 2012
In the USA (and other countries) lots of young people have become scared because they have been told that the world will end on Dec 21, 2012. One of those young people sent an email to me recently and asked several questions. Most of my answers below are based on what scientists have written, and what they have said in recent videos. The videos can be seen here: Scientists Respond to 2012 End-of-World Hype. Further details about the wild claims of the doomsayers were compiled during research that has spanned many years.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
[begins]
The overall message is that you can relax! There is absolutely no scientific evidence that any worldwide disasters will happen in December 2012. Those websites, books, and videos can say anything they like. Ask them for some evidence to backup their wild claims!! They won't be able to supply it. I could make a wild claim that the Sun is going to explode on May 30 in the year 2013 when the ancient Martian calendar ends one cycle and starts another.
But you know that I'm only making it up, don't you?!
"The '2012 doomsday' is a hoax, a fraud, and a con job. It is a cruel and disgusting lie being promoted by scam artists after money. First they scare people to death that something terrible is going to happen, then [they] publish books and videos on 'how to survive the apocalypse'. Get the scam?!"
http://www.2012hoax.org/start
Q: People say that a meteor might hit us in 2012. Is there any fact behind this?
No. There are countless astronomers around the world looking for the tracks of any possible 'Near Earth Objects' against the background of stars. (NEOs are asteroids and comets with orbits that come within 28 million miles (about 45 million kilometers) of Earth's path around the sun.) NASA maintains a database and website dedicated to recording them and their potential risk. Go here for more info :- http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/
The database doesn't show anything that we need to be concerned about for the year 2012, or any year for the foreseeable future.
So far, the database shows 6,708 near Earth asteroids. http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/stats/
This table shows the risk evaluation: http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/risk/
Note that the Torino Scale is a ten point scale. http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/risk/#legend
"According to this ten-point scale, a rating of zero indicates the event has 'no likely consequences'. A Torino Scale rating of 1 indicates an event that 'merits careful monitoring.' Even higher ratings indicate that progressively more concern is warranted. The Torino Scale is defined only for potential impacts less than 100 years in the future."
"NASA has granted funding for the WISE infrared telescope to finish an extra full sky scan, giving scientists an additional opportunity to comb the inner solar system for hard-to-see asteroids that could threaten Earth." http://spaceflightnow.com/news/n1012/19wise/
Q: Would we survive if a meteor hit?
This question and answer is largely based on theory and predictions. As above, there aren't any objects we need to be concerned about in the foreseeable future. Near Earth Objects come in all shapes and sizes. (Meteors and meteorites are small objects that have entered the earth's atmosphere.) The vast majority of meteors burn up in the upper atmosphere. They are known as 'shooting stars'. If (a big if ! ) a larger object, such as an asteroid, hit the Earth, the danger would depend on its size and where it hit the Earth (including the bottom of the seas and oceans). Note that oceans cover 71 percent of the Earth’s surface. So chance indicates that an object would likely hit oceans, or other unpopulated areas such as deserts and Arctic areas."Given several years warning time, existing technology could be used to deflect the threatening object away from Earth.""No one should be overly concerned about an Earth impact of an asteroid or comet. The threat to any one person from auto accidents, disease, other natural disasters and a variety of other problems is much higher than the threat from NEOs." http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/neo/target.html
Q: Does 2012 deserve all the hype it has?
No. Definitely not! Like I wrote in the introduction above, there is absolutely no scientific evidence that any worldwide disasters will happen in December 2012. It is all an Internet hoax, with no basis in fact.
Q: What is the mentality behind the Mayan's long calendar ending in 2012?
The Mayans had a number of calendars, used for specific purposes, that each covered a number of our days. If a calendar reached it's maximum number of days it would start again at day 'one'. That is much like our calendar covers 12 months, or about 365 days, and ends on December 31st. A new calendar starts on January 1st.
"Contrary to popular understanding, the ancient Meso-Americans, be they Aztec or Maya or any other group, left no oral or written “prophecy” record about what would or could happen on or about the year 2012 -- other than a great age of 5125 years would end and another commence."http://www.2012hoax.org/mayan-prediction
http://foresight-of-hindsight.blogspot.com/2010/10/how-maya-calendar-works.html
Q: What are the Anunnaki, and what is their relevance to 2012?
The Anunnaki aliens were mentioned by a writer called Zecharia Sitchin. He proposed that they lived on a planet called Nibiru. The idea is apparently based in ancient Babylonian myth. Some people have suggested that Nibiru (or Planet X) could return in 2012. There is absolutely no evidence of this. (If it existed astronomers would know all about it!)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Planetary_objects_proposed_in_religion,_astrology_and_ufology#Planets_proposed_by_Zecharia_Sitchin
If somebody suggests that a large object is approaching the Earth, or will approach the Earth in a certain year, ask them to supply the right ascension and declination of the object. If nobody can supply that information the object doesn't exist, period!
http://nibiruchallenge.blogspot.com/
A new video by David Morrison :- The Truth About Nibiru (October 21, 2011)
Q: Is a super-tsunami possible? What would the affects be?
By "super-tsunami" I assume you mean a tidal wave bigger than one caused by under-sea volcanic eruptions and movement of the sea floor. A super-tsunami could be caused by an asteroid hitting an ocean. However, as shown above, there aren't any objects we need to be concerned about in the foreseeable future.
Some people might mention an asteroid called Apophis. It is supposed to come fairly close to Earth in 2029 and 2036, but it is being closely monitored, and NASA has recently shown that any slight risk has been greatly reduced. "The asteroid is expected to make a record-setting -- but harmless -- close approach to Earth on Friday, April 13, 2029, when it comes no closer than 29,450 kilometers (18,300 miles) above Earth's surface."
http://foresight-of-hindsight.blogspot.com/2009/10/asteroid-apophis-reduced-risk-in-2036.html
As already mentioned, no one should be overly concerned about an Earth impact of an asteroid or comet.
Please advise if I have calmed your fears. Also, like the quote at the start of my blog, "Don't give up your education, or your hopes and ambitions, to follow a rainbow." I really hope that you can return to living a happy life, with absolutely no fears for the future.
I really hate what these Internet hoaxes are doing to the young people in USA and other countries.
Remember: "Extraordinary claims demand extraordinary evidence..." The 'people' making these claims cannot supply scientific evidence to backup their claims. They are shamelessly trying to make money from the books, videos, and other things.
After December 21, 2012, I would like to see the Internet flooded with apologies written by doomsayers whose claims didn’t have a basis in fact.
Yours sincerely,
Peter Yates,
(Dunedin, New Zealand.)
PS. You are welcome to copy or forward this email to your friends.
[ends]
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The teenager has written back saying that I have definitely settled his nerves.
.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
[begins]
The overall message is that you can relax! There is absolutely no scientific evidence that any worldwide disasters will happen in December 2012. Those websites, books, and videos can say anything they like. Ask them for some evidence to backup their wild claims!! They won't be able to supply it. I could make a wild claim that the Sun is going to explode on May 30 in the year 2013 when the ancient Martian calendar ends one cycle and starts another.
But you know that I'm only making it up, don't you?!
"The '2012 doomsday' is a hoax, a fraud, and a con job. It is a cruel and disgusting lie being promoted by scam artists after money. First they scare people to death that something terrible is going to happen, then [they] publish books and videos on 'how to survive the apocalypse'. Get the scam?!"
http://www.2012hoax.org/start
Q: People say that a meteor might hit us in 2012. Is there any fact behind this?
No. There are countless astronomers around the world looking for the tracks of any possible 'Near Earth Objects' against the background of stars. (NEOs are asteroids and comets with orbits that come within 28 million miles (about 45 million kilometers) of Earth's path around the sun.) NASA maintains a database and website dedicated to recording them and their potential risk. Go here for more info :- http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/
The database doesn't show anything that we need to be concerned about for the year 2012, or any year for the foreseeable future.
So far, the database shows 6,708 near Earth asteroids. http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/stats/
This table shows the risk evaluation: http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/risk/
Note that the Torino Scale is a ten point scale. http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/risk/#legend
"According to this ten-point scale, a rating of zero indicates the event has 'no likely consequences'. A Torino Scale rating of 1 indicates an event that 'merits careful monitoring.' Even higher ratings indicate that progressively more concern is warranted. The Torino Scale is defined only for potential impacts less than 100 years in the future."
"NASA has granted funding for the WISE infrared telescope to finish an extra full sky scan, giving scientists an additional opportunity to comb the inner solar system for hard-to-see asteroids that could threaten Earth." http://spaceflightnow.com/news/n1012/19wise/
Q: Would we survive if a meteor hit?
This question and answer is largely based on theory and predictions. As above, there aren't any objects we need to be concerned about in the foreseeable future. Near Earth Objects come in all shapes and sizes. (Meteors and meteorites are small objects that have entered the earth's atmosphere.) The vast majority of meteors burn up in the upper atmosphere. They are known as 'shooting stars'. If (a big if ! ) a larger object, such as an asteroid, hit the Earth, the danger would depend on its size and where it hit the Earth (including the bottom of the seas and oceans). Note that oceans cover 71 percent of the Earth’s surface. So chance indicates that an object would likely hit oceans, or other unpopulated areas such as deserts and Arctic areas."Given several years warning time, existing technology could be used to deflect the threatening object away from Earth.""No one should be overly concerned about an Earth impact of an asteroid or comet. The threat to any one person from auto accidents, disease, other natural disasters and a variety of other problems is much higher than the threat from NEOs." http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/neo/target.html
Q: Does 2012 deserve all the hype it has?
No. Definitely not! Like I wrote in the introduction above, there is absolutely no scientific evidence that any worldwide disasters will happen in December 2012. It is all an Internet hoax, with no basis in fact.
Q: What is the mentality behind the Mayan's long calendar ending in 2012?
The Mayans had a number of calendars, used for specific purposes, that each covered a number of our days. If a calendar reached it's maximum number of days it would start again at day 'one'. That is much like our calendar covers 12 months, or about 365 days, and ends on December 31st. A new calendar starts on January 1st.
"Contrary to popular understanding, the ancient Meso-Americans, be they Aztec or Maya or any other group, left no oral or written “prophecy” record about what would or could happen on or about the year 2012 -- other than a great age of 5125 years would end and another commence."http://www.2012hoax.org/mayan-prediction
http://foresight-of-hindsight.blogspot.com/2010/10/how-maya-calendar-works.html
Q: What are the Anunnaki, and what is their relevance to 2012?
The Anunnaki aliens were mentioned by a writer called Zecharia Sitchin. He proposed that they lived on a planet called Nibiru. The idea is apparently based in ancient Babylonian myth. Some people have suggested that Nibiru (or Planet X) could return in 2012. There is absolutely no evidence of this. (If it existed astronomers would know all about it!)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Planetary_objects_proposed_in_religion,_astrology_and_ufology#Planets_proposed_by_Zecharia_Sitchin
If somebody suggests that a large object is approaching the Earth, or will approach the Earth in a certain year, ask them to supply the right ascension and declination of the object. If nobody can supply that information the object doesn't exist, period!
http://nibiruchallenge.blogspot.com/
A new video by David Morrison :- The Truth About Nibiru (October 21, 2011)
Q: Is a super-tsunami possible? What would the affects be?
By "super-tsunami" I assume you mean a tidal wave bigger than one caused by under-sea volcanic eruptions and movement of the sea floor. A super-tsunami could be caused by an asteroid hitting an ocean. However, as shown above, there aren't any objects we need to be concerned about in the foreseeable future.
Some people might mention an asteroid called Apophis. It is supposed to come fairly close to Earth in 2029 and 2036, but it is being closely monitored, and NASA has recently shown that any slight risk has been greatly reduced. "The asteroid is expected to make a record-setting -- but harmless -- close approach to Earth on Friday, April 13, 2029, when it comes no closer than 29,450 kilometers (18,300 miles) above Earth's surface."
http://foresight-of-hindsight.blogspot.com/2009/10/asteroid-apophis-reduced-risk-in-2036.html
As already mentioned, no one should be overly concerned about an Earth impact of an asteroid or comet.
Please advise if I have calmed your fears. Also, like the quote at the start of my blog, "Don't give up your education, or your hopes and ambitions, to follow a rainbow." I really hope that you can return to living a happy life, with absolutely no fears for the future.
I really hate what these Internet hoaxes are doing to the young people in USA and other countries.
Remember: "Extraordinary claims demand extraordinary evidence..." The 'people' making these claims cannot supply scientific evidence to backup their claims. They are shamelessly trying to make money from the books, videos, and other things.
After December 21, 2012, I would like to see the Internet flooded with apologies written by doomsayers whose claims didn’t have a basis in fact.
Yours sincerely,
Peter Yates,
(Dunedin, New Zealand.)
PS. You are welcome to copy or forward this email to your friends.
[ends]
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The teenager has written back saying that I have definitely settled his nerves.
.
Thursday, December 10, 2009
Global Warming: Was it Ever Really a Crisis?
Climate Change Reconsidered from Diane Bast on Vimeo.
"Professionally produced for The Heartland Institute, this 20-minute video features interviews with leading climate scientists who spoke at the Third International Conference on Climate Change in Washington, DC."
www.GlobalWarmingHeartland.org
Extracts from this page :- www.heartland.org/books/LegislatorsGuide.html
The Heartland Institute, has been studying and commenting on climate change since 1995, making contact with hundreds of scientists, economists, and policy experts whose views on climate change certainly dispute the notion that 'global warming is a crisis.'
These individuals are not on the 'fringe' of the scientific community. Lawrence Solomon, a Canadian journalist and environmentalist, wrote, “What I found when I started digging first surprised and then shocked me. I found dozens of truly eminent and world-renowned scientists who reject the conventional 'wisdom' on global warming. I also found that, in case after case, the scientists putting forward the contrary argument were far more accomplished than those who originated the U.N.’s doomsayer view."
“In short,” wrote Solomon, “the scientists I found and profiled are too eminent and their research too devastating to allow narrow and simplistic views of global warming to survive.”
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See also :-
Science and Public Policy Institute
(Lord Monckton's website.)
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"In a speech delivered before the Australian Senate on November 25, Australian Senator Steve Fielding warns against rushing to judgment on proposed carbon cap-and-trade legislation."
http://www.globalwarmingheartland.org/index.html
The graph compares the steadily rising CO2 levels with the global temperature average.
There hasn't been any significant warming since 1998.
The models used by the United Nations panel on climate change did not 'project' the lack of warming, and cannot account for the anomaly.
(Apparently the UN panel doesn't make 'predictions' - it makes 'projections'.)
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This is a static image!
Please go here for more info. :-
http://wattsupwiththat.com/widget/
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NewstalkZB (New Zealand radio station)
www.newstalkzb.co.nz
This recording was re-broadcast on December 12, 2009.
Host - Leighton Smith
Guest - Prof. Bob Carter (Marine Geo-Physical Laboratory, James Cook University, Australia.)
Caller - David
LS -- For Professor Bob Carter - David - morning.
D -- Morning.
LS -- Your question.
D -- I’d like to ask Professor Bob Carter, why is it that just a quick scan of the Internet shows that all the people that basically work at the coalface, who work in the area of climate research, ie. all the weather forecasting bureau of the UK, America, Australia, India, I think Scandinavia ones - all attribute the recent warming to man.
BC -- Well the answer is your word: “quick-scan” of the Internet. You obviously haven’t looked carefully enough --
D -- I’ve looked very carefully actually.
BC -- Well science matters are not determined by majority vote, that’s the second point.
D -- These are people working at the coalface.
BC -- I’m working at the coalface, and so are thousands of other scientists, and --
D -- Have you ever had a paper published, explaining the warming in terms of other effects apart from CO2?
BC -- Indeed, and that you can ask that question shows that your scan of the Internet was very superficial indeed. There are thousands of qualified scientists out there - they have signed public statements to the effect that not that climate change is not a problem. Climate change is a problem, but human-caused climate change from carbon dioxide emissions - if you want to take a head count - there are between thirty and forty thousand qualified scientists that have said that they do not believe that’s a problem. And the IPCC claims it has two thousand scientists - it actually has probably three or four hundred - you can’t actually get hold of the list. And that’s something else that should ring a bell of big alarm in the public’s mind.
D -- These are policy statements by organizations that represent people working at the coalface.
BC -- Well you’re putting your finger right on the button. They’re policy statements indeed - that’s politics, that’s not science, and that’s the problem with the IPCC. It is a political body. It is giving the government political advice, despite the fact that it is advised by scientists.
D -- Well can you explain why other journals, eg. New Scientist, The American Advancement For Science, all again believe the recent warming is due to man.
BC -- Well if they believe it, they are being non-scientific.
D -- Why?
BC -- Because science is not about belief, science is about testing hypotheses. The hypothesis of the day is that dangerous global warming is caused by human carbon dioxide emissions. That’s what the press reporter that asks me - sloppily - do I believe in global warming actually means. He or she means - do I believe that dangerous global warming will be caused by human carbon dioxide emissions? That’s a simple hypothesis. It has been tested repeatably - and it fails. Let me give you one test. Since 1998 - the last 10 years - global average temperature has declined.
D -- But there’s still a rising trend.
BC -- Well of course if you plot it as a ten to fifteen year moving average.
D -- Quite surely it is taken over a longer period, not a short period. Not a year or six months.
BC -- I’ll come back and address that, but just let me finish my point please, which is for the last ten years global average temperatures declined. Over those same ten years carbon dioxide in the atmosphere has increased by five percent. The hypothesis is, more carbon dioxide - not just warming, but dangerous global warming. The fact is more carbon dioxide - cooling, and it doesn’t matter whether you’re talking about three years, five years, or a hundred years, that’s a test of that hypothesis, and the hypothesis fails.
D -- Those ten years may have been cooler that 1998, but it’s still amongst the most fifteen warmest years since 1850.
BC -- Yes for the same reason that the days after mid-summer day are the warmest in the annual cycle. That’s a complete piece of scientific trivia which is run endlessly by the media and by the bodies that have an alarmist intention in this area.
D -- And by the climate research unit in East Anglia, who I believe you are quite happy to quote.
BC -- Well they publish statistics which are used by the United Nations, and used by me. Indeed I use their statistics. I wouldn’t dream of using their opinions.
D -- That’s quite interesting. So what do you put the warming down to - sun flare activity, sunspot activity?
BC -- There’s about a hundred sub-disciplines of scientific research that are relevant to global warming. I am a personal expert in one or two of them. There is no such thing on this planet as a scientist that understands climate change. Anyone that sits in the table opposite you and says, “I’m a scientist, I understand climate change, and the warming’s due to x, y, or z”, is an idiot, and you stop listening to them straight away. It is an extremely complex natural system, and perhaps the most important thing about it is that it is non-linear or chaotic. What that means is you cannot predict it. The IPCC themselves have a very good statement to that effect. That means that our government has plans to introduce taxes which are based on computer models that are trying to predict a system that all science in the world know is un-predictable. You as a citizen should be worried about that.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
.
Wednesday, November 18, 2009
Indonesian Clerics Call For Ban on '2012'
by Hans David Tampubolon, The Jakarta Post, - Wed, Nov 18, 2009.
(extracts)
Several regional branches of the Indonesian Ulema Council (MUI), the country's highest self-proclaimed Islamic authority, say the doomsday-themed Hollywood movie 2012 must be banned because it runs counter to their beliefs.
MUI South Kalimantan chairman Asywadie Syukur said Tuesday the government had to pay serious attention to matters that could mislead or confuse Muslims, particularly a movie like 2012, which is now playing at theaters nationwide.
- - - - - - - - - - - -
Members of the MUI's Situbondo, East Java, branch raided several Internet cafes in the area to confiscate pirated DVDs of the movie and prevent Internet users from downloading it.
"We condemn the 2012 doomsday movie because it has caused a lot of unrest in the Situbondo community," said MUI Situbondo MUI head K.H. Abdullah Faqih Gufron, ignorant of the fact that the raids carried out by his people counted as unrest.
He also called on Information and Communications Minister Tifatul Sembiring to issue a ruling banning the movie from spreading through the Internet. He had nothing to say about the DVD piracy.
On Monday, MUI Malang head Mahmud Zubaidi called the movie inappropriate, particularly for Muslims, because "no one but Allah knows when doomsday will come".
He added the movie was misleading and called on Muslims not to watch it.
Renowned cleric Yusuf Mansyur, while stressing he respected other clerics' opinions of the movie, said Muslims who chose to watch 2012 should consider it a work of fiction.
_more here_
.
(extracts)
Several regional branches of the Indonesian Ulema Council (MUI), the country's highest self-proclaimed Islamic authority, say the doomsday-themed Hollywood movie 2012 must be banned because it runs counter to their beliefs.
MUI South Kalimantan chairman Asywadie Syukur said Tuesday the government had to pay serious attention to matters that could mislead or confuse Muslims, particularly a movie like 2012, which is now playing at theaters nationwide.
- - - - - - - - - - - -
Members of the MUI's Situbondo, East Java, branch raided several Internet cafes in the area to confiscate pirated DVDs of the movie and prevent Internet users from downloading it.
"We condemn the 2012 doomsday movie because it has caused a lot of unrest in the Situbondo community," said MUI Situbondo MUI head K.H. Abdullah Faqih Gufron, ignorant of the fact that the raids carried out by his people counted as unrest.
He also called on Information and Communications Minister Tifatul Sembiring to issue a ruling banning the movie from spreading through the Internet. He had nothing to say about the DVD piracy.
On Monday, MUI Malang head Mahmud Zubaidi called the movie inappropriate, particularly for Muslims, because "no one but Allah knows when doomsday will come".
He added the movie was misleading and called on Muslims not to watch it.
Renowned cleric Yusuf Mansyur, while stressing he respected other clerics' opinions of the movie, said Muslims who chose to watch 2012 should consider it a work of fiction.
_more here_
.
Friday, October 23, 2009
Que's Blog Reaches 10,000 Visits !!
Sure, that 10,000 total is nothing compared to similar blogs, but it is significant for me! When I started the blog on August 2, 2008 I had no idea how successful it would be - or if it would get any visitors at all! I remember being pleased when it attracted 250 visits! I even posted a list of the countries of those visitors on August 9, 2008; and then again for 500 visits on August 29. (Back then it was a total of 23 countries -- now there is a grand total of 101 countries!)
These were the first six posts :-
Space Exploration by NASA
"End of the World" in the Year 2012 ??
"The Firmament" Video
Survivors of Destructive Cults
Mind Control by Cults
and, Have They Been Recruited by a Cult?
They were a combination of posts I had made on a forum called Ironwolf, and a few articles on religious cults I had found on a website that belongs to the Spotlight Ministries in the United Kingdom. I was pleased to get permission from Spotlight to use their articles.
I was also pleased that other similar blogs created links to this one. It certainly helped to get the blog established. The [now deleted] Ambassador Watch blog even posted an article about this one! It was rather 'tongue-in-cheek', and humorous, and showed a little North Island bias -- a good natured banter between the two main islands in New Zealand.
This year the blog started to explore subjects that aren't directly related to Armstrongism, Church of God, or religious cults. But I think the new subjects still came under the broad heading of debunking -- or attempting to prove that the idea, theory, or prediction doesn't have a basis in fact, and can often be described as being pseudo-science. (Pseudoscience does not adhere to the scientific method, lacks supporting evidence or plausibility, and often lacks scientific status. In other words, it is wild speculation.)
The name of the blog - Foresight of Hindsight means you can predict that if you take part in a risky project, gathering, team, movement, abusive religious group, or cult, you will eventually regret your actions, and you will wish that you hadn't been so foolish. In other words, based on your experiences, maturity and intelligence, you are able to have fore-knowledge, or insight into the likely adverse effects of taking part in those risky activities. The blog attempts to help people with their foresight of hindsight. (If you have foreknowledge you are forewarned.)
Some visitors might be puzzled or confused by the photographs at the top of the blog pages. They are supposed to be a visual representation of the name of the blog. The main photo is actually two photos that were carefully 'stitched' together. The right hand side was originally a copy of the left hand side. It has had the image of the man digitally removed. The small photo is intended to be very similar to the photo that the man is in the process of taking. I imagine that he is using some foresight (based on his knowledge of photography) of what the photo will look like - in addition to what he sees through the viewfinder. (He isn't a part of the scene -- hence the right hand side shows the scene without his image.) Looking at a photo is a form of hindsight -- you aren't looking at the scene as it appears right now in real life. You are looking at a facsimile of the scene as it appeared in one instant in time -- you are looking back in time.
I have identified which visitor made visit number 10,000.
These are the details of the visit as recorded by the Sitemeter program :-
(You can click on it for a larger image.)
Notice the search words were: "scientisi 2012". Google suggested that "scientist 2012" were the intended search words. The first result in the search, out of about 3,150,000 possibilities, was the page in this blog with the title: 'Scientist Responds to 2012 End-of-World Hype'.
...And yes, it is the most popular page in the blog. Further, any Google search that includes the words 'scientist(s)' and '2012' will usually hit that page as the first result in the search.
Note. The visit length could not be recorded because the visitor didn't click on anything while he/she was viewing the page.
This is the City of Montreal in Quebec, Canada -- where the 10,000 visitor's Internet Service Provider is based :-
----------------------------------------------------------------
Anybody willing to predict that the blog will reach 20,000 visits before December 21, 2012 ??
Which city will visitor number 20,000 come from? As you are reading this, 66% of the visits have been from North America, 56% have been from the United States, and the most popular states within that country have been California and Texas. So I would guess Los Angeles or Houston. Is that logical ??
.
These were the first six posts :-
Space Exploration by NASA
"End of the World" in the Year 2012 ??
"The Firmament" Video
Survivors of Destructive Cults
Mind Control by Cults
and, Have They Been Recruited by a Cult?
They were a combination of posts I had made on a forum called Ironwolf, and a few articles on religious cults I had found on a website that belongs to the Spotlight Ministries in the United Kingdom. I was pleased to get permission from Spotlight to use their articles.
I was also pleased that other similar blogs created links to this one. It certainly helped to get the blog established. The [now deleted] Ambassador Watch blog even posted an article about this one! It was rather 'tongue-in-cheek', and humorous, and showed a little North Island bias -- a good natured banter between the two main islands in New Zealand.
This year the blog started to explore subjects that aren't directly related to Armstrongism, Church of God, or religious cults. But I think the new subjects still came under the broad heading of debunking -- or attempting to prove that the idea, theory, or prediction doesn't have a basis in fact, and can often be described as being pseudo-science. (Pseudoscience does not adhere to the scientific method, lacks supporting evidence or plausibility, and often lacks scientific status. In other words, it is wild speculation.)
The name of the blog - Foresight of Hindsight means you can predict that if you take part in a risky project, gathering, team, movement, abusive religious group, or cult, you will eventually regret your actions, and you will wish that you hadn't been so foolish. In other words, based on your experiences, maturity and intelligence, you are able to have fore-knowledge, or insight into the likely adverse effects of taking part in those risky activities. The blog attempts to help people with their foresight of hindsight. (If you have foreknowledge you are forewarned.)
Some visitors might be puzzled or confused by the photographs at the top of the blog pages. They are supposed to be a visual representation of the name of the blog. The main photo is actually two photos that were carefully 'stitched' together. The right hand side was originally a copy of the left hand side. It has had the image of the man digitally removed. The small photo is intended to be very similar to the photo that the man is in the process of taking. I imagine that he is using some foresight (based on his knowledge of photography) of what the photo will look like - in addition to what he sees through the viewfinder. (He isn't a part of the scene -- hence the right hand side shows the scene without his image.) Looking at a photo is a form of hindsight -- you aren't looking at the scene as it appears right now in real life. You are looking at a facsimile of the scene as it appeared in one instant in time -- you are looking back in time.
I have identified which visitor made visit number 10,000.
These are the details of the visit as recorded by the Sitemeter program :-
(You can click on it for a larger image.)
Notice the search words were: "scientisi 2012". Google suggested that "scientist 2012" were the intended search words. The first result in the search, out of about 3,150,000 possibilities, was the page in this blog with the title: 'Scientist Responds to 2012 End-of-World Hype'.
...And yes, it is the most popular page in the blog. Further, any Google search that includes the words 'scientist(s)' and '2012' will usually hit that page as the first result in the search.
Note. The visit length could not be recorded because the visitor didn't click on anything while he/she was viewing the page.
This is the City of Montreal in Quebec, Canada -- where the 10,000 visitor's Internet Service Provider is based :-
----------------------------------------------------------------
Anybody willing to predict that the blog will reach 20,000 visits before December 21, 2012 ??
Which city will visitor number 20,000 come from? As you are reading this, 66% of the visits have been from North America, 56% have been from the United States, and the most popular states within that country have been California and Texas. So I would guess Los Angeles or Houston. Is that logical ??
.
Wednesday, October 7, 2009
Asteroid Apophis - reduced risk in 2036
NASA news release: 2009-151
Oct. 7, 2009
NASA Refines Asteroid Apophis' Path Toward Earth
PASADENA, Calif. -- Using updated information, NASA scientists have recalculated the path of a large asteroid. The refined path indicates a significantly reduced likelihood of a hazardous encounter with Earth in 2036.
The Apophis asteroid is approximately the size of two-and-a-half football fields. The new data were documented by near-Earth object scientists Steve Chesley and Paul Chodas at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, Calif. They will present their updated findings at a meeting of the American Astronomical Society's Division for Planetary Sciences in Puerto Rico on Oct. 8.
"Apophis has been one of those celestial bodies that has captured the public's interest since it was discovered in 2004," said Chesley. "Updated computational techniques and newly available data indicate the probability of an Earth encounter in 2036, for Apophis has dropped from one-in-45,000 to about four-in-a million."
A majority of the data that enabled the updated orbit of Apophis came from observations Dave Tholen and collaborators at the University of Hawaii's Institute for Astronomy in Manoa made. Tholen pored over hundreds of previously unreleased images of the night sky made with the University of Hawaii's 2.2-meter (88-inch) telescope, located near the summit of Mauna Kea.
Tholen made improved measurements of the asteroid's position in the images, enabling him to provide Chesley and Chodas with new data sets more precise than previous measures for Apophis. Measurements from the Steward Observatory's 2.3 meter (90-inch) Bok telescope on Kitt Peak in Arizona and the Arecibo Observatory on the island of Puerto Rico also were used in Chesley's calculations.
The information provided a more accurate glimpse of Apophis' orbit well into the latter part of this century. Among the findings is another close encounter by the asteroid with Earth in 2068 with chance of impact currently at approximately three-in-a-million. As with earlier orbital estimates where Earth impacts in 2029 and 2036 could not initially be ruled out due to the need for additional data, it is expected that the 2068 encounter will diminish in probability as more information about Apophis is acquired.
Initially, Apophis was thought to have a 2.7 percent chance of impacting Earth in 2029. Additional observations of the asteroid ruled out any possibility of an impact in 2029. However, the asteroid is expected to make a record-setting -- but harmless -- close approach to Earth on Friday, April 13, 2029, when it comes no closer than 38,300 kilometers (23,746 miles) above Earth's surface. [distance increased 29 Nov 2013]
"The refined orbital determination further reinforces that Apophis is an asteroid we can look to as an opportunity for exciting science and not something that should be feared," said Don Yeomans, manager of the Near-Earth Object Program Office at JPL. "The public can follow along as we continue to study Apophis and other near-Earth objects by visiting us on our AsteroidWatch Web site and by following us on the @AsteroidWatch Twitter feed."
The science of predicting asteroid orbits is based on a physical model of the solar system which includes the gravitational influence of the sun, moon, other planets and the three largest asteroids.
NASA detects and tracks asteroids and comets passing close to Earth using both ground and space-based telescopes. The Near-Earth Object Observations Program, commonly called "Spaceguard," discovers these objects, characterizes a subset of them and plots their orbits to determine if any could be potentially hazardous to our planet.
JPL manages the Near-Earth Object Program Office for NASA's Science Mission Directorate in Washington. JPL is a division of the California Institute of Technology in Pasadena. Cornell University, Ithaca, N.Y., operates the Arecibo Observatory under a cooperative agreement with the National Science Foundation in Arlington, Va.
For more information about asteroids and near-Earth objects, visit:
http://www.jpl.nasa.gov/asteroidwatch/
----------------------------------------------------------------
Also, more info here :-
http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/
An article on Apophis is here :-
http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/apophis/
.
Oct. 7, 2009
NASA Refines Asteroid Apophis' Path Toward Earth
PASADENA, Calif. -- Using updated information, NASA scientists have recalculated the path of a large asteroid. The refined path indicates a significantly reduced likelihood of a hazardous encounter with Earth in 2036.
The Apophis asteroid is approximately the size of two-and-a-half football fields. The new data were documented by near-Earth object scientists Steve Chesley and Paul Chodas at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, Calif. They will present their updated findings at a meeting of the American Astronomical Society's Division for Planetary Sciences in Puerto Rico on Oct. 8.
"Apophis has been one of those celestial bodies that has captured the public's interest since it was discovered in 2004," said Chesley. "Updated computational techniques and newly available data indicate the probability of an Earth encounter in 2036, for Apophis has dropped from one-in-45,000 to about four-in-a million."
A majority of the data that enabled the updated orbit of Apophis came from observations Dave Tholen and collaborators at the University of Hawaii's Institute for Astronomy in Manoa made. Tholen pored over hundreds of previously unreleased images of the night sky made with the University of Hawaii's 2.2-meter (88-inch) telescope, located near the summit of Mauna Kea.
Tholen made improved measurements of the asteroid's position in the images, enabling him to provide Chesley and Chodas with new data sets more precise than previous measures for Apophis. Measurements from the Steward Observatory's 2.3 meter (90-inch) Bok telescope on Kitt Peak in Arizona and the Arecibo Observatory on the island of Puerto Rico also were used in Chesley's calculations.
The information provided a more accurate glimpse of Apophis' orbit well into the latter part of this century. Among the findings is another close encounter by the asteroid with Earth in 2068 with chance of impact currently at approximately three-in-a-million. As with earlier orbital estimates where Earth impacts in 2029 and 2036 could not initially be ruled out due to the need for additional data, it is expected that the 2068 encounter will diminish in probability as more information about Apophis is acquired.
Initially, Apophis was thought to have a 2.7 percent chance of impacting Earth in 2029. Additional observations of the asteroid ruled out any possibility of an impact in 2029. However, the asteroid is expected to make a record-setting -- but harmless -- close approach to Earth on Friday, April 13, 2029, when it comes no closer than 38,300 kilometers (23,746 miles) above Earth's surface. [distance increased 29 Nov 2013]
"The refined orbital determination further reinforces that Apophis is an asteroid we can look to as an opportunity for exciting science and not something that should be feared," said Don Yeomans, manager of the Near-Earth Object Program Office at JPL. "The public can follow along as we continue to study Apophis and other near-Earth objects by visiting us on our AsteroidWatch Web site and by following us on the @AsteroidWatch Twitter feed."
The science of predicting asteroid orbits is based on a physical model of the solar system which includes the gravitational influence of the sun, moon, other planets and the three largest asteroids.
NASA detects and tracks asteroids and comets passing close to Earth using both ground and space-based telescopes. The Near-Earth Object Observations Program, commonly called "Spaceguard," discovers these objects, characterizes a subset of them and plots their orbits to determine if any could be potentially hazardous to our planet.
JPL manages the Near-Earth Object Program Office for NASA's Science Mission Directorate in Washington. JPL is a division of the California Institute of Technology in Pasadena. Cornell University, Ithaca, N.Y., operates the Arecibo Observatory under a cooperative agreement with the National Science Foundation in Arlington, Va.
For more information about asteroids and near-Earth objects, visit:
http://www.jpl.nasa.gov/asteroidwatch/
----------------------------------------------------------------
Also, more info here :-
http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/
An article on Apophis is here :-
http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/apophis/
.
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