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Friday, October 3, 2008

Scientist Responds to 2012 End-of-World Hype

Blog: 'Foresight of Hindsight'
Title: 'Scientist Responds to 2012 End-of-World Hype'
http://foresight-of-hindsight.blogspot.com/2008/10/scientist-responds-to-2012-end-of-world.html

For a newer article on these subjects :-
~~
A Scared Teenager Asks Questions About 2012



YouTube page :- http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5_T7FTIFyAA
Subtítulos españoles - 2012: Una revision cientifica de la realidad
A 49 minute public talk on Ustream :- The Truth About 2012

A new video :- 12-21-2012 Just Another Day ... (March 7, 2012)



YouTube page :- http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l4VuAeUO6yI

A new video :- The Truth About Nibiru ... (October 21, 2011)
A newer video :- The Science of Doomsday 2012 ... (March 18, 2012)

~ A more comprehensive 59 minute video is on Fora.tv ... here :-
David Morrison - Surviving 2012 and Other Cosmic Disasters

Articles on the NASA.gov website :-
Why The World Won't End ... The Great 2012 Doomsday Scare

(Answers below are by David Morrison, NAI Senior Scientist.)


Question
:
With all this talk about Nibiru and 2012 its kinda hard to believe anything a government funded agency has to say. Because if this truly is real then I understand it would cause mass panic around the world so the government I believe would have good reason for concealing this. All the general public has to look into are either YouTube and other websites that can't really be trusted, and well you guys, who are also not exactly trustworthy either.
Answer:
It is interesting that you ask me when your message is mostly assertions that NASA can't be trusted. But you did ask me, so I will answer.

I am telling you the truth, and honesty is a fundamental value of science. We seek the truth about nature, and we also communicate our findings openly, to other scientists and to the public. This open communication is what makes scientific advances possible. On matters of science the best authorities are the scientists themselves, professional scientific societies, and the peer-reviewed journals in which we publish our findings. Next best are the fine science journalists in our major newspapers, TV, and radio.

The fact that these stories about 2012 are not discussed in science journals, or reported at science meetings ... is a strong warning that Nibiru and pole shift and the like are not real. They represent a hoax, plain and simple.

Finally, I will comment on your assertion, which I hear often from advocates of catastrophes, that the government conceals information that might cause mass panic. This is wrong from three perspectives.
(1) Trying to keep a secret makes the bad news that much more dramatic when it inevitably comes out.
(2) The idea of mass panic is mostly the result of Hollywood and TV films, but social scientists know that historically there is very little panic in crisis situations, and people generally try to help each other.
(3) Far from concealing threats, the truth is that governments are always tempted to exaggerate dangers, especially when they can be blamed on other countries (or even other parties); think of the constant warnings about terrorists, for example, or the government color-coded warnings we are exposed to every day.


Question:
I realize everything that is said on 2012 is an internet hoax. The only concern I still have is the next solar storm in 2011 or 2012. I heard on PBS that the rays from the solar storm are blocked by our Earth's magnetic field. I also heard from another source that our magnetic field is getting weaker and it is almost not there. Do you know how well our magnetic field can protect us from the next solar storm?
Answer:
Don't worry about the next solar maximum; this happens every 11 years (approximately) and is no danger to life on Earth. The small fluctuations in the Earth's magnetic field are also not a concern; our magnetic field is plenty strong enough to protect us and is very unlikely to decline (or reverse) for thousands of years. The claims that the magnetic field may not be here 4 years from now are just another part of this big Internet hoax, which keeps coming up with one fictitious threat after another to scare people. The only real danger to life that I know of comes from a combination of global warming and loss of habitat. That is a global environmental problem that is serious enough for everyone to be concerned about and try to reverse.


Question:
Is there a planet or brown dwarf called Nibiru or Eris that is approaching the Earth and threatening our planet with widespread destruction?
Answer:
No, Nibiru and other stories about wayward planets are an Internet hoax. There is no factual basis for these claims, and most of them (such as that Nibiru has been hiding behind the Sun or that it will be visible to the naked eye from the southern hemisphere next year) are ludicrous. Eris is real, but it is a dwarf planet similar to Pluto that will remain in the outer solar system; the closest it can come to Earth is about 4 billion miles.


Question:
Is it true that the Sun will be in the center of the Milky Way Galaxy [or aligned with the center] in December 2012 and that this will cause a pole shift and massive destruction?
Answer:
No, this is an Internet hoax, with no basis in fact. There is no alignment of planets, or of the Sun with the Galaxy. As far as being in the center of the Galaxy, this is impossible; we are slowly orbiting the galactic center at a distance of about 30,000 light years. The idea of a “pole shift” is also unfounded. Most people seem to mean a rapid change in the rotational pole of the Earth, but this is something that has never happened and never will. Some people are confusing this with the reversal of the magnetic poles on Earth, which does take place regularly, every few hundred thousand years. But there is no evidence that this might happen soon, and even if it did, the magnetic shift would be gradual and there would probably be no consequences on the planet, certainly nothing catastrophic.

Answers by David Morrison, NAI Senior Scientist
September 2008

  1. Question

    I have heard from a reliable source that NASA is covering up the 2012 doomsday. But due to a careless scientist, word leaked out. My question is could you give me proof? I want solid evidence. ALSO: If Nibiru is such a hoax on "the internet" then why was it on the History Channel and why don't you guys have censors for such "hoaxes" then? I have four little babies and I think all of the human race deserves to know the truth from you "experts". If it’s real then do the right thing; if not quit letting these hoaxes confuse true issues please.

    It saddens me to keep getting questions about the Nibiru hoax. Other recent letters have even asserted that NASA has posted videos admitting the reality of Nibiru. This is nonsense and shows how little the con-men and conspiracy websites respect the truth. But you don’t need to take my word for it. Just use common sense. Have you seen Nibiru? Last year these hoax websites said it would be visible to the naked eye this spring. They claim that it is a large planet or even a brown dwarf. If that were true, and if it were headed for the Earth in 2012, it would already be tracked by hundreds of thousands of astronomers, professional and amateur, all over the world. Do you know any amateur astronomers who are watching it? Have you seen any photos or discussion of it in the big popular astronomy magazines like Sky & Telescope? Just think about it. No one could hide something like Nibiru if it existed. ... There is no logic to these assertions. No one from NASA has “admitted” that Nibiru exists. Indeed, I have heard of no scientist who has made such claims. All I hear is lies, but NASA can’t stop that. We live in a country where there is freedom of speech, and that includes freedom to lie. You should be glad there are no censors. But if you will just use common sense I am sure you can recognize the lies. As we approach 2012, the lies will become even more obvious.

    Answer by David Morrison, NAI Senior Scientist
    May 5, 2009

Please go here to 'Ask an Astrobiologist', or search the database of previous questions :-
http://astrobiology.nasa.gov/ask-an-astrobiologist



More articles :-
NASA on 2012: It's really NOT the end of the world as we know it
NASA.gov : Why The World Won't End
Dialogues on 2012: Why The World Will Not End
End of the row over Mayan doomsday belief?
Discovery News asks the experts
Nibiru and Doomsday 2012: [20] Questions and Answers
The Myth of Nibiru and the End of the World in 2012
Armageddon From Planet Nibiru in 2012? Not So Fast
Live Science: 'World to End in 2012: A Hoax Gone Too Far?'
Mike Brown's blog: 'Sony Pictures and the End of the World'
Washington Post -- 2012: Eh, It's Not the End of the World
The Portugal News - Is Doomsday Nigh?
Space.com/MSNBC - Good news! Solar flare won't destroy Earth!

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More information
http://foresight-of-hindsight.blogspot.com/2010/10/how-maya-calendar-works.html
.....................................................................................

Extract below from: www.universetoday.com

When something ends (even something as innocent as an ancient calendar), people seem to think up the most extreme possibilities for the end of civilization as we know it. A brief scan of the internet will pull up the most popular, to some very weird ways that we will, with little logical thought, be wiped off the face of the planet. Archaeologists and mythologists on the other hand believe that the Mayans predicted an age of enlightenment when 13.0.0.0.0 comes around [ie. December 21, 2012]. There isn't actually [any] evidence to suggest doomsday will strike. If anything, the Mayans predict a religious miracle, not anything sinister.
. . . .
Some of the most popular space-based threats to the Earth and mankind focus on Planet X wiping most life off the planet, meteorite impacts, black holes, killer solar flares, gamma ray bursts from star systems, a rapid ice age and a polar (magnetic) shift. There is so much evidence against these things happening in 2012, it's shocking just how much of a following they have generated. Each of the above "threats" needs their own devoted article as to why there is no hard evidence to support the hype.

But the fact remains, the Mayan Doomsday Prophecy is purely based on a calendar which we believe hasn't been designed to calculate dates beyond 2012. Mayan archaeo-astronomers are even in debate as to whether the Long Count is designed to be reset to 0.0.0.0.0 after 13.0.0.0.0, or whether the calendar simply continues to 20.0.0.0.0 (approximately 8000 AD) and then resets. As Karl Kruszelnicki brilliantly writes:

"…when a calendar comes to the end of a cycle, it just rolls over into the next cycle. In our Western society, every year 31 December is followed, not by the End of the World, but by 1 January. So 13.0.0.0.0 in the Mayan calendar will be followed by 0.0.0.0.1 - or good-ol' 22 December 2012, with only a few shopping days left to Christmas." - Excerpt from Dr Karl's "Great Moments in Science".

=======================================
Wikipedia article :-
2012 Doomsday Prediction

What the Ancient Maya Tell Us About 2012 (very definitive)
.

19 comments:

Que said...

Simon said...
Very often science cannot explain miracles and nor can it explain who created everything. It seems to me that so many scientists are atheist or agnostic these days that it really is the end days which are upon us. I would much sooner listen to a church leader than a scientist on these matters, for the churches are full of warnings. Science says things like 'yeah, try it, do it, you'll be okay. We're in control.' Well folks, you're not. And I believe the book of Revelation should be read at this time.

Que said...

Nostradennis said...
Oi! The Book of Revelation is not a prophecy of things to come any longer. It died and became a false prophecy when the Temple fell to the Romans in 70 AD It was a Jewish rant against the Beast Power (Rome) and the false prophet of Gentile Christianity, including Paul. Written in the last year months before the Temple was destroyed, it became moot.

Of course, it has been hyped for 2000 years as end of the world lit but the "things that must shortly come to pass" in the prologue have long since gone by the way.

Excellent article. Of course humans can bend things in their own history to match their perceptions so Evangelicals and Literalists, if they start a war for Israel over alleged Bible prophecy needs, may get all the symptoms of Revelation, but no Second Coming and just more to clean up

Anonymous said...

Interestig article.

Do you know what IRAS found in 1983?

Do you know why other planets are also warming as well as Earth?

Why would ancients go to all the trouble to give us information on this if it was irrelevent or not to inform us of their knowledge?

I dont know whats going to happen, and I dont think science does either, they have been wrong too many times to be trusted and when they do find the truth the use it against us.

Im not holding my breathe waiting for Nibiru, but im not going to just ignore all the obvious signs that something is happening either.

Que said...

Thanks to Simon, Nostradennis, and Anonymous for their comments.

I didn't know about what IRAS found in 1983.
Apparently the Infrared Astronomical Satellite observed a distant object (50 trillion miles away) that was no more than 40deg.F above absolute zero. -- So cold that it could not be seen by any optical telescope. No movement was observed during a six month period.
www.planet-x.150m.com/iras.html
The object was identified as: "A knot of interstellar cirrus, which is simply an area of dust grains."
www.planet-x.150m.com/iras2.html
A lot more information is available from the main page :-
www.planet-x.150m.com

The Sun's output is variable. The Earth apparently stopped warming in 1998. I guess the other inner planets could have stopped warming about then as well. Perhaps the Sun is primarily responsible for climate change. (Don't tell anybody!)

There isn't any evidence that the Maya (for example) predicted anything for December 2012, other than the change from one calendar cycle to another. It would have been better for them to have predicted when *their* civilization was going to fail -- they might have been able to do something about it before it was too late!

I would be interested if visitors can identify times when 'Science' used the truth against us. I could research the details and perhaps determine how much truth there is/was in the report.
(Thanks in advance...)

Que said...

http://www.universetoday.com/2008/06/21/2012-no-killer-solar-flare/

"In an added twist, solar physicists are surprised by the lack of solar activity at the start of this 24th solar cycle, leading to some scientists to speculate we might be on the verge of another Maunder minimum and "Little Ice Age". This is in stark contrast to NASA solar physicist's 2006 prediction that this cycle will be a 'doozy'."

"This leads me to conclude that we still have a long way to go when predicting solar flare events. Although space weather prediction is improving, it will be a few years yet until we can read the Sun accurately enough to say with any certainty just how active a solar cycle is going to be. So, regardless of prophecy, prediction or myth, there is no physical way to say that the Earth will be hit by any flare, let alone a big one in 2012. Even if a big flare did hit us, it will not be an extinction event. Yes, satellites may be damaged, causing secondary problems such as a GPS loss (which might disrupt air traffic control for example) or national power grids may be overwhelmed by auroral electrojets, but nothing more extreme than that."

"But hold on, to sidestep this issue, doomsayers now tell us that a large solar flare will hit us just as the Earth's geomagnetic field weakens and reverses, leaving us unprotected from the ravages of a CME… The reasons why this is not going to happen in 2012 is worthy of its own article. So, look out for the next 2012 article '2012: No Geomagnetic Reversal'."
http://www.universetoday.com/2008/10/03/2012-no-geomagnetic-reversal/

Anonymous said...

there is no such thing as religion end of.
the government know this but they would not reveal it due to the world going into a mass riot. the most evil race is muslims and to be honest religion just isnt real, there is no proof, the bible isnt real. none of it is.
for example if the world ended but life began again, and a harry potter book was found, those people would believe that there was once wizards and mosters etc. the bible was just written so people can follow something.

Anonymous said...

this is a very good video. Sometimes its hard not to get caught up in things when people keep on saying they are true. Its kind of like religions. People just slowly forget that the basis of the ideas were just lies in the first place. If somehow something happens in 2012, it would have to be some kind of divine intervention or else REAL scientists would know about it

Anonymous said...

I really don't care about doomsday dec 21 2012 anymore because that doesn't seem accurate to me anymore and its a hoax. The one thing I am concerned about is the asteroid apophis that may hit us in 2029 or 2036 and I really hope nasa will deflect it with some new technology before that time because I have plans in 2030.

Que said...

There are countless astronomers around the world looking for the tracks of any possible 'Near Earth Objects' against the background of stars. NASA maintains a database and website dedicated to recording them and their potential risk.
Go here for more info :-
http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/
An article on Apophis is here :-
http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/apophis/

The prediction for Apophis "on Friday, April 13 of 2029 includes an approach to Earth no closer than 29,470 km (18,300 miles, or 5.6 Earth radii from the center, or 4.6 Earth-radii from the surface) over the mid-Atlantic, appearing to the naked eye as a moderately bright point of light moving rapidly across the sky."

Current thinking by scientists is concerned with a possible space probe that can 'fly' with (or even land on) Apophis so that a fix can be maintained on its position. That would make it much easier to work out its potential risk in the year 2036.

"Given several years warning time, existing technology could be used to deflect the threatening object away from Earth. The key point in this mitigation process is to find the threatening object years ahead of time so that an orderly international campaign can be mounted to send spacecraft to the threatening object. One of the techniques suggested for deflecting an asteroid includes nuclear fusion weapons set off above the surface to slightly change the asteroid's velocity without fracturing it."
"No one should be overly concerned about an Earth impact of an asteroid or comet. The threat to any one person from auto accidents, disease, other natural disasters and a variety of other problems is much higher than the threat from NEOs. Over long periods of time, however, the chances of the Earth being impacted are not negligible so that some form of NEO insurance is warranted. At the moment, our best insurance rests with the NEO scientists and their efforts to first find these objects and then track their motions into the future. We need to first find them, then keep an eye on them."
http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/neo/target.html

Que said...

News release: Oct. 7, 2009
NASA Refines Asteroid Apophis' Path Toward Earth

PASADENA, Calif. -- Using updated information, NASA scientists have recalculated the path of a large asteroid. The refined path indicates a significantly reduced likelihood of a hazardous encounter with Earth in 2036.

The Apophis asteroid is approximately the size of two-and-a-half football fields. The new data were documented by near-Earth object scientists Steve Chesley and Paul Chodas at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, Calif. They will present their updated findings at a meeting of the American Astronomical Society's Division for Planetary Sciences in Puerto Rico on Oct. 8.

"Apophis has been one of those celestial bodies that has captured the public's interest since it was discovered in 2004," said Chesley. "Updated computational techniques and newly available data indicate the probability of an Earth encounter on April 13, 2036, for Apophis has dropped from one-in-45,000 to about four-in-a million."
-------------------

The information provided a more accurate glimpse of Apophis' orbit well into the latter part of this century. Among the findings is another close encounter by the asteroid with Earth in 2068 with chance of impact currently at approximately three-in-a-million. As with earlier orbital estimates where Earth impacts in 2029 and 2036 could not initially be ruled out due to the need for additional data, it is expected that the 2068 encounter will diminish in probability as more information about Apophis is acquired.

Initially, Apophis was thought to have a 2.7 percent chance of impacting Earth in 2029. Additional observations of the asteriod ruled out any possibility of an impact in 2029. However, the asteroid is expected to make a record-setting -- but harmless -- close approach to Earth on Friday, April 13, 2029, when it comes no closer than 29,450 kilometers (18,300 miles) above Earth's surface.

"The refined orbital determination further reinforces that Apophis is an asteroid we can look to as an opportunity for exciting science and not something that should be feared," said Don Yeomans, manager of the Near-Earth Object Program Office at JPL. "The public can follow along as we continue to study Apophis and other near-Earth objects by visiting us on our AsteroidWatch Web site and by following us on the @AsteroidWatch Twitter feed."
----------------------

Please go here for the full news release :-
http://foresight-of-hindsight.blogspot.com/2009/10/asteroid-apophis-reduced-risk-in-2036.html

Anonymous said...

hi..browsing thru many web comments..it is vary hard to understand the bottom of the truth. our son aged 2 years...my wife is upset and i am confused.if its a back hole or whatever, and if really the world comes to an end we are mere scapegoats who can do anything..but i would sincerely look forward from the renound scientists all over the world to come clear on the subject..the best to do for the mankind..is to make all understand in the ground level.please join me to request NASA to pitch in with their fact findings...indrajit biswas calcutta, india

Que said...

The 'bottom of the truth' is that there is absolutely no scientific evidence that any worldwide disasters will happen in December 2012. It is all an Internet hoax with no basis in fact. I am sorry that your wife is upset. Please avoid the film '2012' that starts on November 13, and try to avoid the television advertisements for it that will start in a few days.
The NASA scientist quoted in the blog post above has tried hard to be very clear.
I suggest you could speak to an astronomer or a science teacher who will be able explain why there isn't any evidence of worldwide disaster in December 2012.
Remember: "Extraordinary claims demand extraordinary evidence..." The 'people' making those claims cannot supply scientific evidence to backup their claims. They are trying to make money from the books, videos, and other things. Shame on them!!

Anonymous said...

Dear Scientists,

I heard so many people telling that its just a roumor....

But some lot of tv channels and people telling that its true...

We most of the normal people are scared about it...


Please why not all the scientists give a public statement about it...

I request scientists to do this so crores of people like me can sleep peacefully...

Anonymous said...

thanks very much for posting comments...can we all request NASA and other observatory establishments to give a public opinion...i take the call may be a hoax but either there should be some restrictions for posting which is not correct or if this is true the worlds best scientists should post their views and comments to people like us who generally hook on to www throughout the day in some way other other. IB Calcutta, India

robert said...

Thanks a lot for sharing qith us the video. Very interesting.
Rob from star wars mag

Anonymous said...

The real "End of the World" is society tearing itself apart after the majority loses access to man-made power sources and modern technology.

The Amazon Kindle Book: 'Hindsight 2012' (although fictional) explains this better than any Historian, or Scientist ever could.

It stands to reason that multiple "Doomsday" predictions are made and the more outrageous the better.

Eventually society develops a 'Boy who cried wolf'-complex and they stop believing all "End-of-the-world" scenarios.

When the truth finally comes to light, no one believes it and only the strongest, most intelligent survive.

The real Apocalypse is mankind tearing one another apart when they lose the luxury of modern technology.

http://www.amazon.com/dp/B005IHDVMO

Anonymous said...

People die every day from earthquakes,war,fammin,disease. So what means something wouldnt happen to us,people are destroying the world and fighting for money that doesnt exsist. It wouldnt be such a bad thing if 'like the dinoaurs' we humans get wiped out! put an end to suffering, I dont think there should have ever been this thing called earth and why we were given feelings,hope and a soul. I dont believe in anything that you hear or read I go by the eveidence i see around me. This is a sick cruel world we live in its a nightmare and will only contine to be. People shouldnt be worried only if it is a hoax.

ThebigcraZ said...

if 2012 is an internet hoax, how did edgar cayce, nostradamus, the mayans, etc... make predictions and prophecies about it long before widely shared mass information was available.

food for thought

Que said...

It is usually called 'misinformation' or 'disinformation'. (Sorry I have to write a lot to explain further.)

Perhaps the most widespread 2012 myth is that the ancient Mayan Long Count calendar is capable of making predictions. In reality, it isn't the calendar that makes the predictions. It is white people (gringos) who are interpreting it in certain ways that are making the predictions, and then spreading the misinformation via the Internet and books. (Be wary of any interpretations. Nobody knows if the interpretations are correct, without having evidence which proves them beyond reasonable doubt.) Also, anthropologists that specialize in the ancient Mayans and their inscriptions say that there is *no evidence that they predicted anything bad for Dec 21 (or Dec 23). There are even inscriptions that record dates well after 2012 (after Baktun 13), and today's Mayan people say that their culture doesn't include ideas like the apocalypse. They are looking forward to a party on Dec 21 to welcome Baktun 14.

The best way to validate or invalidate ideas connected with Nostradamus is to go directly to the source (in either French or a dependable translation), or consult qualified academics. "Most academic sources maintain that the associations made between world events and Nostradamus's quatrains are largely the result of misinterpretations or mistranslations (sometimes deliberate) or else are so tenuous as to render them useless as evidence of any genuine predictive power." (Wikipedia) Also: "There is no evidence in the academic literature to suggest that any Nostradamus quatrain has ever been interpreted as predicting a specific event before it occurred, other than in vague, general terms that could equally apply to any number of other events. In particular, no quatrain suggests, as is often claimed by books and films on the alleged Mayan Prophecy, that the world will end in December 2012." In fact, *none of the quatrains are dated, so they cannot be used to predict anything on a particular date in the future.

"Edgar Cayce was an American psychic who allegedly had the ability to give answers to questions on subjects such as healing or Atlantis while in a hypnotic trance. Cayce said that his trance statements should be taken into account only to the extent that they led to a better life for the recipient. Moreover, he invited his audience to test his suggestions rather than accept them on faith." If I were you I wouldn't accept anything a psychic, or somebody in a trance, says as being in anyway valid. It's the same as the advice about interpretations ... Nobody knows if the [sayings] are correct, without having evidence which proves them beyond reasonable doubt. Also, Kevin Todeschi said, "Well, the bottom line is, the numbers 2012 are not in the Edgar Cayce readings."