"Extraordinary claims require extraordinary levels of evidence if they are to be believed." - Carl Sagan, et al.
"It doesn't matter how beautiful your theory is, it doesn't matter how smart you are. If it doesn't agree with experiment, it is wrong." - Richard Feynman

"Don't give up your education, or your hopes and ambitions, to follow a rainbow." - Jeanne Mills - a former member of Jim Jones' People's Temple.
"When [Kepler] found that his long cherished beliefs did not agree with the most precise observations, he accepted the uncomfortable facts. He preferred the hard truth to his dearest illusions. That is the heart of science." - Carl Sagan
Science isn't based on consensus or belief, and correlation does not prove causation.
"
Consensus is invoked only in situations where the science is not solid enough." - Michael Crichton
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HOME:__click here__ to see new posts on the Home/Main page


Thursday, May 15, 2014

NASA Has Built A Flying Saucer

"NASA workers at the agency's Jet Propulsion Laboratory, wearing clean room 'bunny suits,' prepare the Low-Density Supersonic Decelerator (LDSD) test article for shipment later this month to Hawaii. LDSD will help land bigger space payloads on Mars or return them back to Earth."
Image Credit: NASA/JPL-Caltec 
.... click photo for a larger image

Click  _here_ for the JPL website page.

"NASA's LDSD test is designed to investigate breakthrough technologies that will benefit landing future human and robotic Mars missions, as well as aid in safely returning large payloads to Earth. The NASA LDSD test over the Pacific Ocean will simulate the entry, descent and landing speeds a spacecraft would be exposed to when flying through the Martian atmosphere. During the test, a large saucer-shaped disk carrying an inflatable inner-tube-shaped decelerator and parachute system will be carried to an altitude of 120,000 feet (37 kilometers) by a giant balloon. After release from the balloon, rockets will lift the disk to 180,000 feet (55 kilometers) while reaching supersonic speeds. Traveling at 3.5 times the speed of sound, the saucer's decelerator will inflate, slowing the vehicle, and then a parachute will deploy to carry it to the ocean's surface."

"A mission overview briefing about [the] upcoming flight test of the Low-Density Supersonic Decelerator (LDSD) experiment will be provided to reporters attending a media day on Monday, June 2, at the U.S. Navy's Pacific Missile Range Facility (PMRF) on Kauai, Hawaii. The public can watch the briefing via live streaming, at 11 a.m. PDT (2 p.m. EDT/8 a.m. HST)."

"The briefing will be streamed live on the agency's website at:
http://www.nasa.gov/nasatv
It will also be carried live on:
http://www.ustream.tv/nasajpl2"

More information is  _here_
.

Monday, March 3, 2014

Apocalyptic Alarmism in the Year 2012

In the three or four years before 2012, apocalyptic dogma emerged from various religious groups and began to infiltrate the mainstream, with a lot of help from Internet sites like YouTube and Facebook. … Do you remember? ... A lot of people were worried about a certain date in December 2012 when doom was supposed to happen. After a year or two it became "apocalyptic alarmism" on a grand scale! It even spawned a Hollywood blockbuster!


The spike in 2009 would be because the movie '2012' was released in the United States on November 13, 2009, and in the rest of the world shortly after that date.


By the way, perhaps the most widespread myth during those times was that the ancient Mayan race predicted the end-of-the-world on December 21, 2012. Anthropologists said that the Mayan culture does not include end-of-world beliefs. It just happened to be the date when the ancient Long Count calendar was due to end one cycle and start another. It was the gringos ('white' people) that latched onto the date and invented various world-wide disasters that had zero evidence to back them up. Most of them were not in the least bit plausible.
(Interesting videos on this page :- Mayans Never Predicted an Apocalypse)


What follows is *part of a blog post I wrote during that year. .. I hoped that the worried people would not be obsessed by one or more natural events that they thought would be “signs” of an apocalypse that would surely happen in December. (The post was also on the 'www.2012hoax.org' site. … That site now redirects to 'www.cosmophobia.org')

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Natural Earth Processes

Statistics [and history] tell us that on *any day during the year there is a good chance that somewhere on Earth there will be *one or more* of these events :-

~ algal bloom or major pollution,
~ avalanche or land slide,
~ deaths of varying numbers of animals,
~ earthquakes of varying magnitude,
~ flood or storm surge or whirlpool,
~ freezing or very hot temperatures,
~ hurricane or cyclone or typhoon,
~ major storm with snow or hail,
~ sand storm or dust storm,
~ sink hole or mine collapse,
~ tornado or water spout,
~ tsunami or tidal wave,
~ volcanic eruption.

We cannot predict or forecast most of those things, but we do know there is a good chance that *one or more* might happen somewhere on Earth on any given day. So we shouldn't be surprised if one or more of those things happen on any particular day(s) in December. It will just be the Earth doing its thing. It will always do its own thing no matter what its human inhabitants think. Also, we have no reason to expect that any particular day in December will have *zero natural disasters. If a natural disaster does happen it will be a "sign" of absolutely nothing, other than the Earth continuing as normal.
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Apocalyptic alarmism about various natural events is an old problem. ... Alarmism can also involve events that *might originate from outside of the Earth's atmosphere. Astronomer David Morrison, senior scientist with the NASA Lunar Science Institute, coined the term 'cosmophobia' after answering questions at the NASA "Ask an Astrobiologist" page. He defined it as "An unreasoning fear of the cosmos".
Further information is at the 'www.cosmophobia.org' site; and at the NASA JPL site about asteroids and comets. "No one should be overly concerned about an Earth impact of an asteroid or comet. The threat to any one person from auto accidents, disease, other natural disasters and a variety of other problems is much higher than the threat from Near Earth Objects."
Also, see my last post: What If Saturn "Explodes or Something".
.

Wednesday, January 29, 2014

What if Saturn "Explodes or Something"?

This was a question on the 'Yahoo! Answers' website recently :-
"If something happens to Saturn like it explodes or something, will it affect Earth?"
Link to Yahoo! page

It reminded me of the type of question we used to get on the '2012hoax.org' forum leading up to the infamous date in December 2012 when doom was supposed to happen. Many of the questions were asked by young people who had been reading websites and Facebook pages, and watching videos, made by the trolls and doom merchants. Those people still occasionally make idiotic claims that have zero evidence to back them up, and are not in the least bit plausible, and are not based in any sort of scientific fact.

There are many young people in the world who tend to believe those silly claims without stopping to think if there is any proof or evidence, or checking to see if there is a track record of similar false claims made by those writers, speakers, and video makers.

In September 2012, I wrote this paragraph in case it helped with the problem :-
"Would you believe me if I made a wild claim that a huge, very deep hole five miles across is going to appear in the South Island of New Zealand on May 30 next year? Would it make any difference to you if I said that the May 30 date is when the ancient Martian calendar ends one cycle and starts another? …. Since I haven't said how or why that is possible I hope you won't just assume that I am correct. Most people need some proof, or evidence, that backs up these wild claims. Otherwise, I could say something like: "I've found a new species of apple tree that has the apples falling upwards!" and everybody would believe me without question."

I also wrote this at the end of a blog post called: Just Another Day in December :-
"Because we know all of these things, we have no reason to believe what any trolls or doom-merchants try to suggest. We can definitely reject their crazy claims with science, statistics, and common sense. In fact, we know there is absolutely zero scientific evidence to backup any of their idiotic, worthless claims. So it isn't surprising that in four or more years they haven't changed that fact. The take-home-lesson is: 'Just saying it doesn't make it true', especially if the doomsayer is likely to make a profit out of the doom saying.
Pick *any day in December. It will be Just Another Day."

In case you were wondering, this was my response on the 'Yahoo! Answers' website :-
(Note that the phrase 'extremely unlikely' really means 'it isn't going to happen'. Planets don't just explode without any external influences like collisions with other planets. At least not in our very stable solar system that is several *billions of years old, in a safe area of the Galaxy.)

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Let's say that something does happen to Saturn. Maybe it does 'explode or something' (though we realize that is extremely unlikely). First we would need to say just how far away from the Earth it is.

For convenience, the distance from the Sun to the Earth is called: one Astronomical Unit (AU). Saturn is a further 9 AU away, or a total of about 10 AU from the Sun. If you consider that the Earth is at 93 million miles or 150 million kilometers from the Sun, Saturn is an *enormous distance away! Between the Earth and Saturn there is lots of space for Mars, the asteroid belt, and the biggest planet Jupiter.

So what is Saturn made of? Saturn is called a gas giant, but it is not entirely gaseous. It is thought that the interior of Saturn is similar to that of Jupiter, having a small rocky core surrounded by hydrogen and helium. If we pretend that it has disintegrated there would be *lots of gas and a small amount of rock (and some dirty ice from the rings). The total mass would be the same as an intact planet, so it is logical to assume that most of the disintegrated materials would continue to orbit the Sun in roughly the same orbit as the intact planet. If the disintegration was violent enough some of the rock might be ejected away from the other material. However, that wouldn't concern us because of the enormous distance from Earth, the small amount of rock, the dispersal being a possible 360 degrees in every direction, and the presence of Jupiter between us and Saturn.

It is fortunate for us that there is a planet in the Solar System the size of Jupiter. (It is 318 times bigger than Earth!) There is evidence that Jupiter has enough gravity to attract many of the space rocks and comets that get close to it. It has been called the Solar System's vacuum cleaner.

So we don't need to worry that the Earth might be affected in any way by anything that might happen to Saturn.
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Update:
I just found this article, dated July 19, 2012, in the 'Weekly World News' :-
Saturn Ready To Explode
Weekly World News is a humorous publication that uses parody and spoof articles, as you can see in this short list :-
~ Putin Will Run For President of U.S. in 2016!
~ President Obama Gets a Tattoo (a picture of his own face!)
~ Watching Super Bowl Causes Impotence
~ 'Toy Story 4' Will Be Rated R

There is also an older article in 'The Spoof', dated March 19, 2010 :-
Saturn Will Explode Tomorrow
It is obvious what kind of publication it is. Apart from its name, there is also this sentence: "Always there with the funniest spoof headlines."
...

Thursday, September 5, 2013

Is This How Egyptian Pyramid Blocks Were Constructed?



YouTube page :- http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=znQk_yBHre4

Further information is _here_ and _here_

This is an one hour radio interview recorded in April 2011 :-

YouTube page :- http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nifbaRv7RVw
.

Wednesday, December 5, 2012

Just Another Day in December

~~ There has been nothing unusual about this year. ~~
There will also be nothing unusual about *all of the remaining days.
Pick *any day in December. It will be Just Another Day.

Below is what we know about the Earth and the Solar System. It explains how we can definitely reject all the false claims of the trolls and doom-merchants.
- -
The Earth and the Solar System
~ The Solar System is in a relatively safe area of the galaxy, about 26,000 light years from the center.
~ The planets happily cruise around the Sun in almost circular orbits.
~ Space agencies know exactly where the planets will be many years into the future due to the very stable orbits.
~ The Sun is the type that will remain relatively benign for about the next 1.1 billion years.
~ The Earth is 93 million miles from the Sun, somewhere in its 360 degree orbit.
~ The Earth is very stable. It only wobbles slightly over thousands of years.
~ The Earth has extensive magnetic fields that direct most solar energy around it.
~ A thick atmosphere reflects up to 95% of any solar energy that gets past the magnetic fields.
~ The upper atmosphere incinerates the vast majority of small and medium sized space rocks that enter it.
~ Any remaining pieces would likely fall onto the oceans (71% of the Earth's surface), or onto the deserts and arctic areas.
~ Whole sky surveys assure us that there *aren't any large asteroids in our neighborhood that we need to be concerned about.
~ Even if there is a large asteroid sometime in the distant future, mankind now has the ability to nudge it into a safer trajectory.
~ There is zero telescopic evidence from the Earth, and satellites, of any other large objects in the inner solar system.
~ There are many thousands of mostly amateur astronomers around the World who would advise us of any other objects.
~ If there really was a new object we would be able to see it now in the night sky. It would be brighter than Venus!
~ If there really was a new object it would surely be the greatest 'breaking news' story in the history of 'breaking news'!

The Earth and the Solar System continue as normal. Just like they have done for billions and billions of years.
- -
Natural Earth Processes
Statistics tell us that on *any day during the year there is a good chance that somewhere on Earth there will be *one or more* of these events :-
~ algal bloom or major pollution,
~ avalanche or land slide,
~ deaths of varying numbers of animals,
~ earthquakes of varying magnitude,
~ flood or storm surge or whirlpool,
~ freezing or very hot temperatures,
~ hurricane or cyclone or typhoon,
~ major storm with snow or hail,
~ sand storm or dust storm,
~ sink hole or mine collapse,
~ tornado or water spout,
~ tsunami or tidal wave,
~ volcanic eruption.

We cannot predict or forecast most of those things, but we do know there is a good chance that *one or more* might happen somewhere on Earth on any given day. So we shouldn't be surprised if one or more of those things happen on any particular day(s) in December. It will just be the Earth doing its thing. It will always do its own thing no matter what its human inhabitants think. Also, we have no reason to expect that any particular day in December will have *zero natural disasters. If a natural disaster does happen it will be a "sign" of absolutely nothing, other than the Earth continuing as normal.
- -

Because we know all of these things, we have no reason to believe what any trolls or doom-merchants try to suggest. We can definitely reject their crazy claims with science, statistics, and common sense. In fact, we know there is absolutely zero scientific evidence to backup any of their idiotic, worthless claims. So it isn't surprising that in four or more years they haven't changed that fact. The take-home-lesson is: 'Just saying it doesn't make it true', especially if the doomsayer is likely to make a profit out of the doom saying.
~~ Pick *any day in December. It will be Just Another Day. ~~
- -

If you wish to copy all, or parts, of this post please credit:
foresight-of-hindsight.blogspot.com
and:
www.2012hoax.org
Thank you.
.

Saturday, May 26, 2012

The Second Ron Weinland Fail Day

Ronald Weinland is the pastor of the 'Church of God - Preparing for the Kingdom of God' (COG-PKG). His first 'Fail Day' was on April 17, 2008. He had predicted that the 'Sounding of the First Trumpet' would start the 'Great Tribulation', and would also be the beginning of his job as the 'Spokesman of the Two Witnesses'. (The Two Witnesses are mentioned in Revelation - the last book of the Christian Bible.) He said that the effects of the First Trumpet (death of one third of the plants in the United States) would increase in destructive power over a seven week period.

I like to call April 17, 2008 his first Fail Day because nothing unusually destructive happened on that day, or on any days during the following seven week period. Certainly nothing that he had predicted. His excuse was that the effects were "spiritual".

Comments made during the April 17 non-event on the 'ironwolf.dangerousgames' forum can be seen here :-
http://ironwolf.dangerousgames.com/forum/index.php/topic,4.msg231.html#msg231

Ronald Weinland's second Fail Day is destined to be this Sunday, May 27 (on our calendar). Since the Church of God religious sect uses the Jewish calendar for their festival dates, Ron's Fail Day is actually from sunset on Saturday night to sunset on Sunday night. (Sunset to sunset is the Jewish day.) Ron's predictions for this Fail Day are economic collapse, WW3, and other general apocalyptic events - or at least the start of them.

It is generally thought that Jerusalem will be the city that first sees the effects of any [imaginary or spiritual] apocalyptic events. Sunset in Jerusalem is on Saturday, May 26, at about 7:36 pm. (Israel Daylight Time, IDT).
In case anybody is wondering, some of the equivalent times around the world are :-
USA Pacific - Sat. 9:36 am. (PDT)
USA Eastern - Sat. 12:36 pm. (EDT)
(GMT/UTC is Sat. 16:36.)
United Kingdom - Sat. 5:36 pm. (BST)
Sydney, Australia - Sun. 2:36 am. (EST)
New Zealand - Sun. 4:36 am. (NZST)

I intend to monitor the news services (for fun!) from the time shown above, much like I did on April 17, 2008, and record any unusual events below. I fully expect that there will be none! Earth will continue as usual. I will also change the time entries below from grey to black once they have passed. (Sorry I won't  be near any computers between 3pm and 7pm on Sunday, NZ time.)

A fellow blogger called 'Jack635' (http://jack635.blogspot.com/) has reminded me that my country, New Zealand, is one of the first countries to see the new day - because it is close to the [imaginary] International Date Line that goes down the center of the Pacific Ocean. So if there is anything unusual to see or hear or feel, New Zealanders will be among the first people to see or hear or feel it. (Thanks a lot Jack!) In case you're wondering, I'm *not* expecting to see or hear or feel anything unusual.


USA _____ USA _____ UK ______ Israel ___ Australia ___ New Zealand
(PDT)     (EDT)     (BST)     (IDT)      (EST)         (NZST)
                                                                  
SAT.      SAT.      SAT.      SAT.       SUN.          SUN.
9:36am __ 12:36pm _ 5:36pm __ 7:36pm ___ 2:36am ______ 4:36am
10am ____ 1pm _____ 6pm _____ 8pm ______ 3am _________ 5am
11am ____ 2pm _____ 7pm _____ 9pm ______ 4am _________ 6am
12pm ____ 3pm _____ 8pm _____ 10pm _____ 5am _________ 7am
1pm _____ 4pm _____ 9pm _____ 11pm _____ 6am _________ 8am
2pm _____ 5pm _____ 10pm ____ 12am _____ 7am _________ 9am
                              SUN.
3pm _____ 6pm _____ 11pm ____ 1am ______ 8am _________ 10am
4pm _____ 7pm _____ 12am ____ 2am ______ 9am _________ 11am
                    SUN.
5pm _____ 8pm _____ 1am _____ 3am ______ 10am ________ 12pm
6pm _____ 9pm _____ 2am _____ 4am ______ 11am ________ 1pm
7pm _____ 10pm ____ 3am _____ 5am ______ 12pm ________ 2pm
8pm _____ 11pm ____ 4am _____ 6am ______ 1pm _________ 3pm
9pm _____ 12am ____ 5am _____ 7am ______ 2pm _________ 4pm
          SUN.
10pm ____ 1am _____ 6am _____ 8am ______ 3pm _________ 5pm
11pm ____ 2am _____ 7am _____ 9am ______ 4pm _________ 6pm
12am ____ 3am _____ 8am _____ 10am _____ 5pm _________ 7pm
SUN.
1am _____ 4am _____ 9am _____ 11am _____ 6pm _________ 8pm
2am _____ 5am _____ 10am ____ 12pm _____ 7pm _________ 9pm
3am _____ 6am _____ 11am ____ 1pm ______ 8pm _________ 10pm
4am _____ 7am _____ 12pm ____ 2pm ______ 9pm _________ 11pm
5am _____ 8am _____ 1pm _____ 3pm ______ 10pm ________ 12am
                                                       MON.
6am _____ 9am _____ 2pm _____ 4pm ______ 11pm ________ 1am
7am _____ 10am ____ 3pm _____ 5pm ______ 12am ________ 2am
                                         MON.
8am _____ 11am ____ 4pm _____ 6pm ______ 1am _________ 3am
9am _____ 12pm ____ 5pm _____ 7pm ______ 2am _________ 4am
9:37am __ 12:37pm _ 5:37pm __ 7:37pm ___ 2:37am ______ 4:37am
_____________________________ SUNSET in Jerusalem

UPDATE
As  expected nothing unusual (such as the start of a world war, or general apocalyptic events) happened during the sunset-to-sunset period. You might find it hard to believe but Ronald Weinland hasn't missed a beat! His destructive cult ministry continues, and he still expects to receive tithes from his sad 'sheep'. Within the next day or two (after his May 27 failure) he wrote a new blog entry on his website and produced a sermon. He announced that the new predicted date is the next Pentecost which is on May 19, 2013. Apparently a special appearance by Jesus is deferred until then. If I were you I wouldn't bet on it. It will be 'The Third Ron Weinland Fail Day'.

UPDATE #2
June 13, 2012 - Ronald Weinland was convicted for five counts of income tax evasion.
http://ronaldweinland.info/falseprophet/2012/06/13/yet-another-new-title-for-ronald-weinland/ .

Saturday, January 28, 2012

Evidence Shows No Global Warming For Last 10 Years

Satellite temperature measurements show that there hasn't been any atmospheric global warming for the last ten years, despite steadily rising levels of atmospheric CO2. Further, as shown in the graph below, the trend curve has stabilized, and appears to be ready to start trending slightly downwards. (However, please be advised that the authors of the graph say the trend curve should not be construed as having any predictive value whatsoever.)
















Graph by Dr Roy Spencer and Dr John Christy, University of Alabama, Huntsville.
http://www.drroyspencer.com/wp-content/uploads/UAH_LT_1979_thru_December_2011.png
NOTE: A full size graph is at the bottom of the blog page.

It seems that global atmospheric temperatures are not the only way that global warming can be measured, as explained in this extract :-
"As a recent 'Skeptical Science' post by Dana Nuccitelli has pointed out global warming hasn't stopped, despite a recent lull in global surface temperatures. The oceans, which are the main heat sink for global warming, have scarcely skipped a beat in soaking up heat. The hiatus in global surface temperatures appears to simply be a reflection of natural variability, principally the exchange of heat between the ocean surface and the atmosphere. But we shouldn't expect this to last much longer. Eventually that ocean heat buried in deeper layers will come back to the surface, and we'll experience the warm phase of this natural cool/warm (La Niña/El Niño-based) cycle."
... "They conclude that the lull is an illusion, and that rapid warming of global surface temperatures is likely to resume in the next few years."
http://www.skepticalscience.com/NASA-scientists-expect-more-rapid-global-warming-in-the-very-near-future-part-1.html

Of course, we have yet to see how much heat will be released by future El Nino events. If the 1998 year is anything to go by they could be only relatively brief events that don't much affect the overall trend - about every five years. Another unknown factor is just how long can the oceans continue to absorb heat from the atmosphere. According to this graph the oceans have been absorbing a lot of heat since about 1975, with no indication of when any of it will be released, other than during brief El Nino's. ... The extract above quotes NASA scientists saying: "rapid warming ... is likely to resume in the next few years." What evidence is there that the warming will be rapid? Also, what evidence is there that it will resume in the next few years?


This graph shows the steadily rising levels of atmospheric CO2 :-
















http://hypsithermal.files.wordpress.com/2007/12/joedaleotempco2.jpg
(click on the graph for a larger image)


This graph goes back to 1880 when ground-based temperature recordings started, and shows the difference between the slight overall temperature increase and the large increase in CO2 levels :-



















http://c3headlines.typepad.com/.a/6a010536b58035970c012876ffd0b9970c-pi
During the 130 years average global temperatures increased by 0.72 deg.C., and atmospheric CO2 increased by 96.7 parts per million. The arrowed lines show the overall trends. The overall trend for temperature is an increase of 0.57 deg.C. per century, and the overall trend for CO2 is an increase of 63.7 ppm per century.
(click on the graph for a larger image)


In this video (Jan 27, 2012 by The Wall Street Journal) some scientists say that there is no compelling argument for drastic action, and they say that there is no evidence of global warming for the past ten years. (The year 1998 had a particularly large El Nino effect, which can be ignored when looking for overall trends.) :-



The 'op-ed' article mentioned in the video is here :-
No Need To Panic About Global Warming


The graphs above show a very small geological time period. When you expand the time period (into tens of thousands of years) you can see that the present climate fluctuations appear to be very natural. In fact global temperatures have been much warmer than today for almost all of the past 10,000 years. The graph below was created by Cuffy and Clow in 1997, and is based on Greenland ice core records :-













http://iceagenow.info/wp-content/uploads/2011/06/Easterbrook-Natural_global_warming.jpg
NOTE: A full size graph is at the bottom of the blog page.


When you expand the time period even further into millions of years you can see that there is little correlation between CO2 levels and global temperatures :-


















http://www.geocraft.com/WVFossils/PageMill_Images/image277.gif
(click on the graph for a larger image)
The text explaining the graph is on this page :-
http://www.geocraft.com/WVFossils/Carboniferous_climate.html



Dr John Christy's testimony :- Heatwave is not what global warming looks like ...
.

Saturday, December 31, 2011

Mayans Never Predicted An Apocalypse


YouTube page :- http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kcc_KAhwpa0

The NASA 2012 page is here :- Why The World Won't End

Also: .. 2012 - A Scientific Realty Check (text) ... YouTube video .. by NASA JPL

------------------------------------------------------------------------

"World At 2012"
Arizona Public Media interviews University of Arizona Anthropology Professor Daniela Triadan :-



See this page :- http://www.azpm.org/science/story/2012/1/5/1830-will-the-world-end-in-2012
.