"Extraordinary claims require extraordinary levels of evidence if they are to be believed." - Carl Sagan, et al.
"It doesn't matter how beautiful your theory is, it doesn't matter how smart you are. If it doesn't agree with experiment, it is wrong." - physicist Richard Feynman
I reject your cultic 'reality' and substitute the real reality!! "Don't give up your education, or your hopes and ambitions, to follow a rainbow." - Jeanne Mills - a former member of Jim Jones' People's Temple. "When [Kepler] found that his long cherished beliefs did not agree with the most precise observations, he accepted the uncomfortable facts. He preferred the hard truth to his dearest illusions. That is the heart of science." - Carl Sagan Science isn't based on consensus or belief, and correlation does not prove causation. ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
~~ There has been nothing unusual about this year. ~~
There will also be nothing unusual about *all of the remaining days.
Pick *any day in December. It will be Just Another Day.
Below is what we know about the Earth and the Solar System. It
explains how we can definitely reject all the false claims of the trolls
and doom-merchants. - -
The Earth and the Solar System
~ The Solar System is in a relatively safe area of the galaxy, about 26,000 light years from the center.
~ The planets happily cruise around our relatively benign sun in almost circular orbits.
~ Space agencies know exactly where the planets will be many years into the future due to the very stable orbits.
~ The Sun is the type that will remain relatively benign for about the next 1.1 billion years.
~ The Earth is 93 million miles from the Sun, somewhere in its 360 degree orbit.
~ The Earth is very stable. It only wobbles slightly over thousands of years.
~ The Earth has extensive magnetic fields that direct most solar energy around it.
~ A thick atmosphere reflects up to 95% of any solar energy that gets past the magnetic fields.
~ The upper atmosphere incinerates the vast majority of small and medium sized space rocks that enter it.
~ Any remaining pieces would likely fall onto the oceans (71% of the Earth's surface), or onto the deserts and arctic areas.
~ Whole sky surveys assure us that there *aren't any large asteroids in our neighborhood that we need to be concerned about.
~ Even if there is a large asteroid sometime in the distant future,
mankind now has the ability to nudge it into a safer trajectory.
~ There is zero telescopic evidence from the Earth, and satellites, of any other large objects in the inner solar system.
~ There are many thousands of mostly amateur astronomers around the World who would advise us of any other objects.
~ If there really was a new object we would be able to see it now in the night sky. It would be brighter than Venus!
~ If there really was a new object it would surely be the greatest 'breaking news' story in the history of 'breaking news'!
The Earth and the Solar System continue as normal. Just like they have done for billions and billions of years. - -
Natural Earth Processes
Statistics tell us that on *any day during the year there is a good chance that somewhere on Earth there will be *one or more* of these events :-
~ earthquakes of varying magnitude,
~ tsunami or tidal wave,
~ flood or storm surge or whirlpool,
~ hurricane or cyclone or typhoon,
~ major storm with snow or hail,
~ tornado or water spout,
~ sand storm or dust storm,
~ volcanic eruption,
~ sink hole or mine collapse,
~ avalanche or land slide,
~ freezing or very hot temperatures,
~ algal bloom or major pollution,
~ deaths of varying numbers of animals, including birds and mammals.
We cannot predict or forecast most of those things, but we do know there is a good chance that *one or more*
might happen somewhere on Earth on any given day. So we shouldn't be
surprised if one or more of those things happen on any particular day(s)
in December. It will just be the Earth doing its thing. It will always
do its own thing no matter what its human inhabitants think. Also, we
have no reason to expect that any particular day in December will have *zero
natural disasters. If a natural disaster does happen it will be a
"sign" of absolutely nothing, other than the Earth continuing as normal. - -
Because we know all of these things, we have no reason to believe
what any trolls or doom-merchants try to suggest. We can definitely
reject their crazy claims with science, statistics, and common sense. In
fact, we know there is absolutely zero scientific evidence to backup
any of their idiotic, worthless claims. So it isn't surprising that in
four or more years they haven't changed that fact. The take-home-lesson
is: 'Just saying it doesn't make it true', especially if the doomsayer
is likely to make a profit out of the doom saying.
~~ Pick *any day in December. It will be Just Another Day. ~~ - -
If you wish to copy all, or parts, of this post please credit: foresight-of-hindsight.blogspot.com
Ronald Weinland is the pastor of the 'Church of God - Preparing for the Kingdom of God' (COG-PKG).
His first 'Fail Day' was on April 17, 2008. He had predicted that the 'Sounding of the First Trumpet' would start the 'Great Tribulation', and would also be the beginning of his job as the 'Spokesman of the Two Witnesses'. (The Two Witnesses are mentioned in Revelation - the last book of the Christian Bible.) He said that the effects of the First Trumpet (death of one third of the plants in the United States)
would increase in destructive power over a seven week period.
I like to call April 17, 2008 his first Fail Day because nothing unusually destructive happened on that day, or on any days during the following seven week period. Certainly nothing that he had predicted. His excuse was that the effects were "spiritual".
Ronald Weinland's second Fail Day is destined to be this Sunday, May 27 (on our calendar). Since the Church of God religious sect uses the Jewish calendar for their festival dates, Ron's Fail Day is actually from sunset on Saturday night to sunset on Sunday night. (Sunset to sunset is the Jewish day.) Ron's predictions for this Fail Day are economic collapse, WW3, and other general apocalyptic events - or at least the start of them.
It is generally thought that Jerusalem will be the city that first sees the effects of any [imaginary or spiritual] apocalyptic events. Sunset in Jerusalem is on Saturday, May 26, at about 7:36 pm. (Israel Daylight Time, IDT).
In case anybody is wondering, some of the equivalent times around the world are :-
USA Pacific - Sat. 9:36 am. (PDT)
USA Eastern - Sat. 12:36 pm. (EDT)
(GMT/UTC is Sat. 16:36.)
United Kingdom - Sat. 5:36 pm. (BST)
Sydney, Australia - Sun. 2:36 am. (EST)
New Zealand - Sun. 4:36 am. (NZST)
I intend to monitor the news services (for fun!) from the time shown above, much like I did on April 17, 2008, and record any unusual events below. I fully expect that there will be none! Earth will continue as usual. I will also change the time entries below from grey to black once they have passed. (Sorry I won't be near any computers between 3pm and 7pm on Sunday, NZ time.)
A fellow blogger called 'Jack635' (http://jack635.blogspot.com/) has reminded me that my country, New Zealand, is one of the first countries to see the new day - because it is close to the [imaginary] International Date Line that goes down the center of the Pacific Ocean. So if there is anything unusual to see or hear or feel, New Zealanders will be among the first people to see or hear or feel it. (Thanks a lot Jack!) In case you're wondering, I'm *not* expecting to see or hear or feel anything unusual.
USA _____ USA _____ UK ______ Israel ___ Australia ___ New Zealand
UPDATE As expected nothing unusual (such as the start of a world war, or general apocalyptic events) happened during the sunset-to-sunset period. You might find it hard to believe but Ronald Weinland hasn't missed a beat! His destructive cult ministry continues, and he still expects to receive tithes from his sad 'sheep'. Within the next day or two (after his May 27 failure) he wrote a new blog entry on his website and produced a sermon. He announced that the new predicted date is the next Pentecost which is on May 19, 2013. Apparently a special appearance by Jesus is deferred until then. If I were you I wouldn't bet on it. It will be 'The Third Ron Weinland Fail Day'.
Satellite temperature measurements show that there hasn't been any [statistically significant atmospheric] global warming for the last ten years, despite steadily rising levels of atmospheric CO2. Further, as shown in the graph below, the trend curve has stabilized, and appears to be ready to start trending slightly downwards. (However, please be advised that the authors of the graph say that the trend curve should not be construed as having any predictive value whatsoever.)
It seems that global atmospheric temperatures are not the only way that global warming can be measured, as explained in this extract :-
"As a recent 'Skeptical Science' post by Dana Nuccitelli has pointed out global warming hasn't stopped, despite a recent lull in global surface temperatures. The oceans, which are the main heat sink for global warming, have scarcely skipped a beat in soaking up heat. The hiatus in global surface temperatures appears to simply be a reflection of natural variability, principally the exchange of heat between the ocean surface and the atmosphere. But we shouldn't expect this to last much longer. Eventually that ocean heat buried in deeper layers will come back to the surface, and we'll experience the warm phase of this natural cool/warm (La Niña/El Niño-based) cycle."
... "They conclude that the lull is an illusion, and that rapid warming of global surface temperatures is likely to resume in the next few years." http://www.skepticalscience.com/NASA-scientists-expect-more-rapid-global-warming-in-the-very-near-future-part-1.html
Of course, we have yet to see how much heat will be released by future El Nino events. If the 1998 year is anything to go by they could be only relatively brief events that don't much affect the overall trend - about every five years. Another unknown factor is just how long can the oceans continue to absorb heat from the atmosphere. According to this graph the oceans have been absorbing a lot of heat since about 1975, with no indication of when any of it will be released, other than during brief El Nino's. ... The extract above quotes NASA scientists saying: "rapid warming ... is likely to resume in the next few years." What evidence is there that the warming will be rapid? Also, what evidence is there that it will resume in the next few years?
Previous periods of rapid warming are described in this extract :-
"We can use paleo-climate data to create an objective gauge of what may be considered "rapid warming." For example, transitions between glacial and interglacial periods are among the most rapid warming/cooling events in the paleo-climate record, and occur over several thousand years. During these transitions, the Earth's average surface temperature changes by approximately 5°C. Thus the average rate of warming during a glacial-interglacial transition is approximately 1°C per millenium, or 0.01°C per decade. Our current rate of warming is approximately 0.08°C per decade over the past 100 years ...". http://www.skepticalscience.com/big-picture-global-warming.html
This graph shows the steadily rising levels of atmospheric CO2 :-
This graph goes back to 1880 when ground-based temperature recordings started, and shows the difference between the slight overall temperature increase and the large increase in CO2 levels :-
During the 130 years average global temperatures increased by 0.72 deg.C., and atmospheric CO2 increased by 96.7 parts per million. The arrowed lines show the overall trends. The overall trend for temperature is an increase of 0.57 deg.C. per century, and the overall trend for CO2 is an increase of 63.7 ppm per century.
(click on the graph for a larger image)
In this video (Jan 27, 2012 by The Wall Street Journal) some scientists say that there is no compelling argument for drastic action, and they say that there is no evidence of global warming for the past ten years. (The year 1998 had a particularly large El Nino effect, which can be ignored when looking for overall trends.) :-
The graphs above show a very small geological time period. When you expand the time period (into tens of thousands of years) you can see that the present climate fluctuations appear to be very natural. In fact global temperatures have been much warmer than today for almost all of the past 10,000 years. The graph below was created by Cuffy and Clow in 1997, and is based on Greenland ice core records :-
"Infamous futurist Alexander Grant has recently unveiled his latest prediction for the year 2012, posting on his blog his belief that early in that year there is a 99.9 percent chance that millions of people will still believe in hokey, simple-minded [rubbish] like the world ending with the Mayan calendar or the writings of Nostradamus."
"He also prophesied that many people are likely to continue believing in similar pseudo-scientific garbage in 2013, 2014 and forever onward until they realize that just because some guy with a beard on the History Channel sounds like he knows what he is talking about doesn’t mean that he does."
" 'I see a future where people read and watch things that are presented as though they’re proven fact and then accept and regurgitate this trash as truth - without bothering to even Google, much less research, the contrary viewpoint,' Grant wrote." [extract ends]
by High Plains Reader, Fargo, North Dakota, USA. (Sept. 2009.)
[As at Dec. 4, 2011, this article has been deleted from the 'High Plains Reader' website.] http://hpr1.com/
"Comet Elenin ... will pass about 22 million miles (35 million kilometers) from Earth during its closest approach on Oct. 16, 2011." ... "That's more than 90 times the distance to the moon." (NASA / JPL) .
This was a post on a forum called the 'Ironwolf Forum' on 24-08-2008 :- -------------------------------------------------------------------- "Events of the weekend now passing have done nothing but absolutely convince me that romanized Christians (and before you start with me, ALL Christians have been "romanized", since the whole of modern Christianity has descended from the Councils of Nicea beginning in the 4th century --- no matter how much they protest that they aren't) are in thrall to a man-made god of a very different sort than they would have us believe. A god of a very different sort indeed. Most especially the self-appointed leaders of same." "It's true, it's true, men make their own gods! But why do they make them so evil?" -------------------------------------------------------------------- http://ironwolf.dangerousgames.com/forum/index.php/topic,438.msg5008.html#msg5008
Maybe it's just the interpretation of the ancient scriptures. For example, the knights and 'soldiers' during the Crusades thought they had found justification for their violent actions in the Old Testament of the Christian Bible. A candidate for interpretation and justification: "Do not be discouraged because of this vast army. For the battle is not yours, but God's." .. 2 Chronicles 20:15.
Maybe we can go further back than Nicea, and further back than even the first Christians and Gnostics, -- to a time when a group of disciples were called 'The Way' (or Urxa in Aramaic). They had gathered around a prophet called Yeshua. The Greek speaking people decided to call him Jesus. The original teachings of Yeshua that can be filtered out of the Gospels (both kinds) have been found to be different to the teachings that came after Yeshua. (Eg. Saul of Tarsus/St. Paul.) If my interpretation is correct, the original teachings were far from being evil. Check the Sermon found in Matt. 5,6,7.
Maybe even more adventurous souls can go back over 600 years before Yeshua to the first prophet called Zarathustra (or Zoroaster in Greek). His followers worshiped a god called Ahura Mazda. The exiled Jews in Babylon/Ancient Persia would have been exposed to his religion. Long before Judaism, Christianity, and Islam, it was Zarathustra who first saw a single supreme being, a struggle between good and evil, a saviour, and a last judgment. Zoroastrianism still has followers today in parts of Iran and India, and small pockets in other parts of the world.
Anyway, to cut a long story short, like the forum poster (above) hints at, who needs romanized Christianity, man-made evil gods, and self-appointed leaders? -- especially when it is possible to find a different kind of god if you go further back in time.
This was the reply from the forum poster :- ---------------------------------------------- "Even if you do "find a different kind of god if you go further back in time" --- it's still a 'god'." "Men make their own gods. That is a truism I always believed, intellectually, but events in my life are cohering in a manner that is beginning to convince me of the notion that it is absolutely, inherently, 100% true, beyond all doubt." ---------------------------------------------- .
People are welcome to use these blog posts for research purposes. However, I certainly don't write them to make things easier for students (and others) who are often tempted to 'copy and paste' original writing, and present it as their own writing. In most cases it needs to be re-written in their words, and I would expect an entry in the references of the document - as is normal practice. If they include quotes (in quotation marks) please ensure that there is a reference to the original author.
Visits by Continents North America -- 58.4% Asia -- 12.7% Europe -- 12.3% unknown -- 10.9% Oceania/Australasia -- 4.1% South America -- 1.0% Africa -- 0.6%
Visits by Countries United States -- 50.1% unknown -- 10.9% Canada -- 8.2% India -- 7.3% United Kingdom -- 7.0% Australia -- 2.7% New Zealand -- 1.4% Singapore -- 0.9% (plus 101 others...)
By the way, don't believe anybody who says that di-hydrogen monoxide is toxic. 'Di' means two, and 'monoxide' means one oxide. So, H2 and O ... H2O (water).
Global Temperatures Since 1979 :-
Please note the authors of the graph say the trend curve should not be construed as having any predictive value whatsoever.
Graph by Dr Roy Spencer and Dr John Christy, University of Alabama, Huntsville.
Graph picture :- http://www.drroyspencer.com/wp-content/uploads/UAH_LT_1979_thru_Aug_2012.png
Blog page :- http://www.drroyspencer.com/2012/09/uah-global-temperature-update-for-august-2012-0-34-deg-c/
Global Temperatures Since 1979
Graph picture :- http://www.drroyspencer.com/wp-content/uploads/UAH_LT_1979_thru_Oct_2012_v5.5.png
Blog page :- http://www.drroyspencer.com/2012/11/uah-v5-5-global-temp-update-for-october-2012-0-33-deg-c/
Natural Warming During Last 10,000 Years :-
Graph picture :- http://iceagenow.info/wp-content/uploads/2011/06/Easterbrook-Natural_global_warming.jpg
Blog page :- http://iceagenow.info/2010/05/temperatures-were-warmer-than-today-for-most-of-the-past-10000-years/
"Created by Cuffy and Clow in 1997, and based on Greenland ice core records, this chart shows global temperatures for the past 15,000 years."
"Temperatures have been warmer than today for almost all of the past 10,000 years."
“ 'Natural global warming much more intense than modern warming has occurred many times in the geologic past without CO2 change,' said Easterbrook."