HOME:__click here__ to see new posts on the Home/Main page

Wednesday, December 5, 2012

Just Another Day in December

~~ There has been nothing unusual about this year. ~~
There will also be nothing unusual about *all of the remaining days.
Pick *any day in December. It will be Just Another Day.

Below is what we know about the Earth and the Solar System. It explains how we can definitely reject all the false claims of the trolls and doom-merchants.
- -
The Earth and the Solar System
~ The Solar System is in a relatively safe area of the galaxy, about 26,000 light years from the center.
~ The planets happily cruise around the Sun in almost circular orbits.
~ Space agencies know exactly where the planets will be many years into the future due to the very stable orbits.
~ The Sun is the type that will remain relatively benign for about the next 1.1 billion years.
~ The Earth is 93 million miles from the Sun, somewhere in its 360 degree orbit.
~ The Earth is very stable. It only wobbles slightly over thousands of years.
~ The Earth has extensive magnetic fields that direct most solar energy around it.
~ A thick atmosphere reflects up to 95% of any solar energy that gets past the magnetic fields.
~ The upper atmosphere incinerates the vast majority of small and medium sized space rocks that enter it.
~ Any remaining pieces would likely fall onto the oceans (71% of the Earth's surface), or onto the deserts and arctic areas.
~ Whole sky surveys assure us that there *aren't any large asteroids in our neighborhood that we need to be concerned about.
~ Even if there is a large asteroid sometime in the distant future, mankind now has the ability to nudge it into a safer trajectory.
~ There is zero telescopic evidence from the Earth, and satellites, of any other large objects in the inner solar system.
~ There are many thousands of mostly amateur astronomers around the World who would advise us of any other objects.
~ If there really was a new object we would be able to see it now in the night sky. It would be brighter than Venus!
~ If there really was a new object it would surely be the greatest 'breaking news' story in the history of 'breaking news'!

The Earth and the Solar System continue as normal. Just like they have done for billions and billions of years.
- -
Natural Earth Processes
Statistics tell us that on *any day during the year there is a good chance that somewhere on Earth there will be *one or more* of these events :-
~ algal bloom or major pollution,
~ avalanche or land slide,
~ deaths of varying numbers of animals,
~ earthquakes of varying magnitude,
~ flood or storm surge or whirlpool,
~ freezing or very hot temperatures,
~ hurricane or cyclone or typhoon,
~ major storm with snow or hail,
~ sand storm or dust storm,
~ sink hole or mine collapse,
~ tornado or water spout,
~ tsunami or tidal wave,
~ volcanic eruption.

We cannot predict or forecast most of those things, but we do know there is a good chance that *one or more* might happen somewhere on Earth on any given day. So we shouldn't be surprised if one or more of those things happen on any particular day(s) in December. It will just be the Earth doing its thing. It will always do its own thing no matter what its human inhabitants think. Also, we have no reason to expect that any particular day in December will have *zero natural disasters. If a natural disaster does happen it will be a "sign" of absolutely nothing, other than the Earth continuing as normal.
- -

Because we know all of these things, we have no reason to believe what any trolls or doom-merchants try to suggest. We can definitely reject their crazy claims with science, statistics, and common sense. In fact, we know there is absolutely zero scientific evidence to backup any of their idiotic, worthless claims. So it isn't surprising that in four or more years they haven't changed that fact. The take-home-lesson is: 'Just saying it doesn't make it true', especially if the doomsayer is likely to make a profit out of the doom saying.
~~ Pick *any day in December. It will be Just Another Day. ~~
- -

If you wish to copy all, or parts, of this post please credit:
Thank you.

Saturday, May 26, 2012

The Second Ron Weinland Fail Day

Ronald Weinland is the pastor of the 'Church of God - Preparing for the Kingdom of God' (COG-PKG). His first 'Fail Day' was on April 17, 2008. He had predicted that the 'Sounding of the First Trumpet' would start the 'Great Tribulation', and would also be the beginning of his job as the 'Spokesman of the Two Witnesses'. (The Two Witnesses are mentioned in Revelation - the last book of the Christian Bible.) He said that the effects of the First Trumpet (death of one third of the plants in the United States) would increase in destructive power over a seven week period.

I like to call April 17, 2008 his first Fail Day because nothing unusually destructive happened on that day, or on any days during the following seven week period. Certainly nothing that he had predicted. His excuse was that the effects were "spiritual".

Comments made during the April 17 non-event on the 'ironwolf.dangerousgames' forum can be seen here :-

Ronald Weinland's second Fail Day is destined to be this Sunday, May 27 (on our calendar). Since the Church of God religious sect uses the Jewish calendar for their festival dates, Ron's Fail Day is actually from sunset on Saturday night to sunset on Sunday night. (Sunset to sunset is the Jewish day.) Ron's predictions for this Fail Day are economic collapse, WW3, and other general apocalyptic events - or at least the start of them.

It is generally thought that Jerusalem will be the city that first sees the effects of any [imaginary or spiritual] apocalyptic events. Sunset in Jerusalem is on Saturday, May 26, at about 7:36 pm. (Israel Daylight Time, IDT).
In case anybody is wondering, some of the equivalent times around the world are :-
USA Pacific - Sat. 9:36 am. (PDT)
USA Eastern - Sat. 12:36 pm. (EDT)
(GMT/UTC is Sat. 16:36.)
United Kingdom - Sat. 5:36 pm. (BST)
Sydney, Australia - Sun. 2:36 am. (EST)
New Zealand - Sun. 4:36 am. (NZST)

I intend to monitor the news services (for fun!) from the time shown above, much like I did on April 17, 2008, and record any unusual events below. I fully expect that there will be none! Earth will continue as usual. I will also change the time entries below from grey to black once they have passed. (Sorry I won't  be near any computers between 3pm and 7pm on Sunday, NZ time.)

A fellow blogger called 'Jack635' (http://jack635.blogspot.com/) has reminded me that my country, New Zealand, is one of the first countries to see the new day - because it is close to the [imaginary] International Date Line that goes down the center of the Pacific Ocean. So if there is anything unusual to see or hear or feel, New Zealanders will be among the first people to see or hear or feel it. (Thanks a lot Jack!) In case you're wondering, I'm *not* expecting to see or hear or feel anything unusual.

USA _____ USA _____ UK ______ Israel ___ Australia ___ New Zealand
(PDT)     (EDT)     (BST)     (IDT)      (EST)         (NZST)
SAT.      SAT.      SAT.      SAT.       SUN.          SUN.
9:36am __ 12:36pm _ 5:36pm __ 7:36pm ___ 2:36am ______ 4:36am
10am ____ 1pm _____ 6pm _____ 8pm ______ 3am _________ 5am
11am ____ 2pm _____ 7pm _____ 9pm ______ 4am _________ 6am
12pm ____ 3pm _____ 8pm _____ 10pm _____ 5am _________ 7am
1pm _____ 4pm _____ 9pm _____ 11pm _____ 6am _________ 8am
2pm _____ 5pm _____ 10pm ____ 12am _____ 7am _________ 9am
3pm _____ 6pm _____ 11pm ____ 1am ______ 8am _________ 10am
4pm _____ 7pm _____ 12am ____ 2am ______ 9am _________ 11am
5pm _____ 8pm _____ 1am _____ 3am ______ 10am ________ 12pm
6pm _____ 9pm _____ 2am _____ 4am ______ 11am ________ 1pm
7pm _____ 10pm ____ 3am _____ 5am ______ 12pm ________ 2pm
8pm _____ 11pm ____ 4am _____ 6am ______ 1pm _________ 3pm
9pm _____ 12am ____ 5am _____ 7am ______ 2pm _________ 4pm
10pm ____ 1am _____ 6am _____ 8am ______ 3pm _________ 5pm
11pm ____ 2am _____ 7am _____ 9am ______ 4pm _________ 6pm
12am ____ 3am _____ 8am _____ 10am _____ 5pm _________ 7pm
1am _____ 4am _____ 9am _____ 11am _____ 6pm _________ 8pm
2am _____ 5am _____ 10am ____ 12pm _____ 7pm _________ 9pm
3am _____ 6am _____ 11am ____ 1pm ______ 8pm _________ 10pm
4am _____ 7am _____ 12pm ____ 2pm ______ 9pm _________ 11pm
5am _____ 8am _____ 1pm _____ 3pm ______ 10pm ________ 12am
6am _____ 9am _____ 2pm _____ 4pm ______ 11pm ________ 1am
7am _____ 10am ____ 3pm _____ 5pm ______ 12am ________ 2am
8am _____ 11am ____ 4pm _____ 6pm ______ 1am _________ 3am
9am _____ 12pm ____ 5pm _____ 7pm ______ 2am _________ 4am
9:37am __ 12:37pm _ 5:37pm __ 7:37pm ___ 2:37am ______ 4:37am
_____________________________ SUNSET in Jerusalem

As  expected nothing unusual (such as the start of a world war, or general apocalyptic events) happened during the sunset-to-sunset period. You might find it hard to believe but Ronald Weinland hasn't missed a beat! His destructive cult ministry continues, and he still expects to receive tithes from his sad 'sheep'. Within the next day or two (after his May 27 failure) he wrote a new blog entry on his website and produced a sermon. He announced that the new predicted date is the next Pentecost which is on May 19, 2013. Apparently a special appearance by Jesus is deferred until then. If I were you I wouldn't bet on it. It will be 'The Third Ron Weinland Fail Day'.

June 13, 2012 - Ronald Weinland was convicted for five counts of income tax evasion.
http://ronaldweinland.info/falseprophet/2012/06/13/yet-another-new-title-for-ronald-weinland/ .

Saturday, January 28, 2012

Evidence Shows No Global Warming For Last 10 Years

Satellite temperature measurements show that there hasn't been any atmospheric global warming for the last ten years, despite steadily rising levels of atmospheric CO2. Further, as shown in the graph below, the trend curve has stabilized, and appears to be ready to start trending slightly downwards. (However, please be advised that the authors of the graph say the trend curve should not be construed as having any predictive value whatsoever.)

Graph by Dr Roy Spencer and Dr John Christy, University of Alabama, Huntsville.
NOTE: Click to enlarge, or see the full size graph at the bottom of the blog page.

It seems that global atmospheric temperatures are not the only way that global warming can be measured, as explained in this extract :-
"As a recent 'Skeptical Science' post by Dana Nuccitelli has pointed out global warming hasn't stopped, despite a recent lull in global surface temperatures. The oceans, which are the main heat sink for global warming, have scarcely skipped a beat in soaking up heat. The hiatus in global surface temperatures appears to simply be a reflection of natural variability, principally the exchange of heat between the ocean surface and the atmosphere. But we shouldn't expect this to last much longer. Eventually that ocean heat buried in deeper layers will come back to the surface, and we'll experience the warm phase of this natural cool/warm (La Niña/El Niño-based) cycle."
... "They conclude that the lull is an illusion, and that rapid warming of global surface temperatures is likely to resume in the next few years."

Of course, we have yet to see how much heat will be released by future El Nino events. If the 1998 year is anything to go by they could be only relatively brief events that don't much affect the overall trend - about every five years. Another unknown factor is just how long can the oceans continue to absorb heat from the atmosphere. According to this graph the oceans have been absorbing a lot of heat since about 1975, with no indication of when any of it will be released, other than during brief El Nino's. ... The extract above quotes NASA scientists saying: "rapid warming ... is likely to resume in the next few years." What evidence is there that the warming will be rapid? Also, what evidence is there that it will resume in the next few years?

This graph shows the steadily rising levels of atmospheric CO2 :-

(click on the graph for a larger image)

This graph goes back to 1880 when ground-based temperature recordings started, and shows the difference between the slight overall temperature increase and the large increase in CO2 levels :-

During the 130 years average global temperatures increased by 0.72 deg.C., and atmospheric CO2 increased by 96.7 parts per million. The arrowed lines show the overall trends. The overall trend for temperature is an increase of 0.57 deg.C. per century, and the overall trend for CO2 is an increase of 63.7 ppm per century.
(click on the graph for a larger image)

In this video (Jan 27, 2012 by The Wall Street Journal) some scientists say that there is no compelling argument for drastic action, and they say that there is no evidence of global warming for the past ten years. (The year 1998 had a particularly large El Nino effect, which can be ignored when looking for overall trends.) :-

The 'op-ed' article mentioned in the video is here :-
No Need To Panic About Global Warming

The graphs above show a very small geological time period. When you expand the time period (into tens of thousands of years) you can see that the present climate fluctuations appear to be very natural. In fact global temperatures have been much warmer than today for almost all of the past 10,000 years. The graph below was created by Cuffy and Clow in 1997, and is based on Greenland ice core records :-

NOTE: A full size graph is at the bottom of the blog page.

When you expand the time period even further into millions of years you can see that there is little correlation between CO2 levels and global temperatures :-

(click on the graph for a larger image)
The text explaining the graph is on this page :-